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Old 10-20-2020, 09:46 AM   #2260
flyingnite
adept
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 711
Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

MI, MN, WI all look to be good value on Pinny. 538 gives them 88-92%, their current line is around -240 to -290.

Things to look for:
* How the states voted in the 2018 midterms
* Early voting returned ballots by RVs
* Trump approval rating by state
* Response to the questions such as: Is the country headed in the right direction? How is Trump handling Covid?
* State lean (they are all even or +1 dem)

From the above, a state like MI should probably be -1100 or so. (Whitmer's approval rating went from 43% -> 59% this year because people in MI liked her Covid response)

FWIW, most pollsters are waiting for after the debate to conduct any new polls so theres currently a good window right now to jump on.
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