View Single Post
Old 10-20-2020, 05:55 AM   #2256
Carpal \'Tunnel
SwoopAE's Avatar
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Australia
Posts: 21,393
Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

There was an upset in 2016 and recency bias because Trump over performed his polling by a couple percent in 2016 and ran the table on it going exactly where it needed to go so people want to be on the underdog/same candidate

But Hunter Biden's emails scandal somehow gains actual traction (unlikely)

Trump's efforts to cheat/**** with the postal vote which skews heavily Dem due to Dems taking pandemic more seriously and potential right-wing supreme court may decide election if it's at all close like in 2000 (this and turnout are the two big threats)

Risk of low turnout due to pandemic on D side only which helps Republicans (unlikely due to Dem base hating Trump, but Dem base does take Covid more seriously and more likely to avoid crowds/etc so it's a possibility, like if turnout was sub 54% or so Trump is decently live and if it's like 50% he'd be a fav, by 60% or so Trump is drawing absolutely dead)

Actual Biden scandal of some sort drops that people care about (not the dumb but his son's emails and he maybe set up an inappropriate meeting or whatever as VP no one gives a **** about that)

October surprise of some sort that actually improves Trump's polling numbers by a few percent so he's within the margin of error in enough states that he has decent paths to 270. Something along the lines of attempted assassination to gain sympathy vote, massive leftist riots on much larger scale than previously, major terror attack on home soil, etc

Biden looks completely senile at third debate/in some public appearance on previously unseen scale so the senile sleepy joe attacks might stick more/Biden dies and Dems replace with less likeable candidate/Biden gets Covid and is on ventilator/verge of death for weeks or whatever during election day (all of these scenarios are also unlikely but who knows)

At least, as someone who thinks Biden is more like a 75-80% fav atm, that's my take on 'ways Biden can lose'

Partisans just betting on their team basically putting enough rec money into the market that neither side is likely to get much above +200 at least until election day

I mean you could still fade Hillary for all sorts of stuff at ridiculous numbers in the 2020 cycle long after it was clear she wasn't running for anything just because of the Qanon cult type people propping up random Hillary gets indicted/Hillary runs for President/Biden secretly planning to drop out and make way for Hillary/Hillary will be VP/Hillary will be VP and have Biden murdered random conspiracy theory of the day

Pick your reason

Right now you can get stuff like Dems win Cali at 93% or (lol) Dems win DC at 96% on Predictit yeah that's not a real book, but there are real books out there with dumb -1000 to -10000 prices on stuff that is way over 99% to win

That doesn't remotely mean there is a 4% chance that Trump wins DC it just means markets are irrational for no reason sometimes and not a ton of people want to tie up money to make 4% you can get the same sort of numbers on Biden to win in Oklahoma in no universe are either of those scenarios happening yet some markets are pricing them as high as 4%

Obv on election day i'll all-in the bankroll on various locks like that but theres no reason to tie up the funds for a month plus when the numbers will be similar on the day again for no reason

But yeah, Biden *can* still lose but there is absolutely no data to suggest Trump is anything close to a favourite, a lot can happen still but there's only one debate and two weeks or so left, so Trump is drawing a lot thinner than he was a month ago as the clock runs out without any change in polling. He really needs to gain a few percent in the midwest if he's going to have a realistic chance, because Trump isn't picking off enough Hillary states to get to 270 if he loses WI MI PA
SwoopAE is offline   Reply With Quote