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Old 10-20-2020, 12:36 AM   #2252
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Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Australia
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

Originally Posted by hedgie43 View Post
Mostly for Nate Silver and his pack of IYI followers. Courtesy of Iowa! in this very thread:
His sports stuff is obviously absolute trash, but his politics stuff is fine in general if you'd bet his predictions every cycle from 2008-2018 as of day before the election based on probabilities vs betting odds pretty sure you'd have done reasonably well

Obv he isn't infalliable or anything but weighted polling averages do still have value

His sports predictions obviously have no value whatsoever but he's reasonable for politics stuff, people forget he had Trump at about 30% when the market had him in the 20s on election day from memory and a bunch of dumb pundits and analysts had Hillary at 99% etc

Biden story is being called a Russian information campaign by 50 senior intelligence officials, Trump back to +16x from +148 or so yesterday - I assume a combination of that plus the ruling that Pennsylvania can count the absentee ballots for an extra few days messes with Republican plans to invalidate/disqualify as many postal votes as possible etc and I guess also the rules for the third debate allowing the moderator to cut the microphones to so the candidates can't talk over each other

Still been a good few days for Trump odds movement wise, but I think that's driven by the BuT hUnTeR bIdEn'S eMaIls stuff and not a tightening in the polls unless we see that in polls released over the next day or two
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