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Old 09-21-2020, 06:23 AM   #3
Join Date: Sep 2019
Posts: 117
Re: 10NL - river blunder?

He has top-2p, Queens and 6's. Someone who has a better kicker, like QJ for instance, would have 2p, Queens and 5's because the board has a pair of 5's on it, not because he paired both hole cards.

To run through the hands this board could produce, which is a bit of mental gymnastics, an opponent could have:

Quads: 5555 (anybody starting w 55)
FH: 555/QQ, 55522, 55566, QQQ55, 22255, 66655 (anybody starting with Q5/25/65/qq/66/22)
Flush: Anybody starting with 2 clubs. akc,ajc,atc,a9c,a8s,a7c,a4c,a3c,a2c,kjc,ktc,k9c,k8 c,k7c,k4c,k3c,k2c,jtc,/j9c,j8c,j7c,j4c,j3c,j2c,t9c,t8c,t7c,t4c,t3c,t2c,98 c,97c,94c,93c,92c,87c,84c,83c,82c,74c,73c,72c,43c, 42c
straight: anybody starting with 34
trips: anybody starting with: any 5 other than a FH hand (a5/k5//j5/t5/95/85/75/35).

I'm counting 60 (35%) hands that beat you out of 169 possible starting hands but it is actually more than that because we haven't broken it down by suitedness, which we would need to do for hands like A5, which could beat you with trips, both A5s beats you and A5o beats you. Similarly 34s beats you with a straight, as does 34o. That gets complicated because we have to subtract out the suits that are on the board. Let's just assume it is more like 75-80 hands that beat you, which is more like 45% of all possible hands.

Many of the possible hands that beat you are unlikely, but it was just a min-raise so the cutoff could have a lot of junk just like you do, the B at least has a semi-defined range which may rule out many of these hands.

I think the computer is just being nitty and saying, "let's just check and call down instead of leading and facing a raise with all that slop out there which could beat us." It would be a tough spot and calling a river raise with 2p would probably be -EV.

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