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Old 09-16-2020, 06:00 PM   #17
old hand
Join Date: Oct 2018
Posts: 1,222
Re: Interesting 88 hand facing river shove

Seems like a bunch of suited 7x wants to start donking turn along with some non-h os 7x - these hands miss a ton of value from 9x when turn goes x/x and to some extent from overpairs and draws that want to mix checking IP. Wouldn't read heavily into sizing since pop likely uses roughly this sizing irrelevant of river spr, but I'm not sure pop finds even close to as many bluffs as it should and in particularly at these lower stakes so I'd be inclined to weight this more toward value w/o reads. However, if I've correctly understood your observation of V and his tendency to take similar lines more frequently than he should and that variance is likely to dictate then I think this spot is somewhat closer than an equilibrium adjusted to pop reads analysis would suggest and would potentially tend to revert back to giving V a close to equilibrium donking range. We're never folding turn for obvious equity reasons, but when V uses this sizing otr (which he should with the vast majority of value hands that donk turn) then we hold possibly the very worst bluff catcher in our range? since we block a large amount of combos that bluff turn and V's river range is pretty value dense anyway, theoretically (but very likely only theoretically) barring a ton of combos that pop really very rarely gets here with, ie the suited low card straight draws that unblock all of V one h broadway type of hands.

Cliffs being that we really want to reserve our calling this type of villian line on super-wet boards to value hands only with the VERY least being something like Ahx having the nut flush blocker and some sdv, whilst particularly avoid using bluffcatchers that remotely block villian bluffs. Our combo (8hx in general) is probably the nut low. So nh
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