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Old 09-16-2020, 04:22 PM   #15
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 5,701
Re: Interesting 88 hand facing river shove

I don’t know why you are excluding 55 or even 1010+ if you think the turn bet was based solely on range advantage.
range advantage doesn't mean you bet 100%. 10s would be almost purely a c/c on turn even if he donks some hands because the 7 favors him. same goes for 9x. this is the dilemma.

the sets all predominantly raise the flop, 9x doesn't donk the turn, and flushes don't make sense for value. adding 55 or nut flushes into his value range makes it an even worse call but they're pretty unreasonable river bombs and aren't necessary to make this a fold.

even if he never does this with worse than a 7, never has a 9x and always follows through with turn donk bluffs by bombing the river, it's still debatable whether you'd want to call the river jam with less than a 7.

his bluffs look to be T8 and JT with a heart, A6 and A8 with the A of hearts, maybe A6 and A8 with the other heart with partial frequency... this is around 20 combos of possible bluffs. he has about twice that in terms of 7x combos.

he probably shouldn't even have a river jam range.

Last edited by Abbaddabba; 09-16-2020 at 04:35 PM.
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