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Old 09-16-2020, 12:58 AM   #12
Abbaddabba
Pooh-Bah
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 5,701
Re: Interesting 88 hand facing river shove

as was said, suited 8s are likely to raise flop because they have combo draws, but additionally Tx8h is a likely bluff for this line making the 8h an even worse card to have.

i think i'd just fold anyways with no read, but to humor the hand -
is it a mistake for him to bomb flushes?

my estimate of your range is:

7x, 9x and quads are only around 20 combos (i think that's generous)

Ah with KQJT even at half frequency (because you often check flop, might not raise ATo, etc) are somewhere around 30.

overpairs are another 30.

88/66 with heart another 6 / if you call without heart another 12. let's call it 10.

flushes have maybe 20 possible combos based on pre but some are checked on flop and some raise turn, and some fold pre with split frequency. let's call it 10 to keep numbers round.

that brings it to 100 total combos.

with this range if you called 50% to make his bluff break even you'd be calling with 20 combos worse than a flush, and 30 combos that are flushes +. the nut flush would be on the cusp of profitable based on these ranges. which still likely makes it a check because it would probably do better as a check/call.

but if the nut flush is a check/call (or if not a smaller bet size), then does the Ah for your AT-AKo have any value as a bluff catcher in theory?

Last edited by Abbaddabba; 09-16-2020 at 01:09 AM.
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