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Old 08-29-2020, 02:41 AM   #3
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: Paratrooper1999 on Twitch
Posts: 2,000
Re: Set on a monotone board.

Polarizing bet here, right.... Either nuts or Ah dry bluff. How likely is a passive player going to bluff here? If he is balanced enough to play the nut flush and Ah dry the same way, I would say you can call here enough to be profitable but we all know that most players are far from balanced.
However, GTO sizing does call for 1/2 pot sized bets on the flop on a monotone board. When he is 3b light, is it almost always with DS hands? If so, his range is extremely made flush heavy with very few combos of bad AA or ss AA.

It is hard to calculate 20% bluffs etc. The only way I know how to calculate this would be to assign a % range preflop.... lets say 30% (we can play around with this based on your reads) and add the Ah.

Omaha Hi Simulation ?
2,036,360 trials (Exhaustive)
board: 8h4h3h9d
Hand Equity Wins
9s8s8d7c 67.85%
30%, Ah 32.15%

If we think his preflop range is tighter and closer to 15%, our equity actually go down b/c he is going to have more ds Ax combos.

Omaha Hi Simulation
1,304,360 trials (Exhaustive)
board: 8h4h3h9d
Hand Equity Wins
9s8s8d7c 65.97%
15%, Ah 34.03%

Assuming we have 65%+ equity and we are getting 1.8 to 1, I think we have a call.

If anyone has another way of calculating this, please let me know. I would be interested too.
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