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Old 08-22-2020, 06:31 PM   #1728
Join Date: May 2012
Posts: 4,278
Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

Swoop, i agree on 2016..............

i think it was going to come down to florida/pennsylvania... D's needed one, R's needed both.

some talk 2016 that NC go D but i didn't believe it. could have gone D in a big win. but i think florida goes first for D's and they don't need NC anyway......

polls were close but consistent HRC lead........ lots of talk that "maybe these polls don't capture things properly.. only 0.1% responds etc".... FBI takes action in last week of campaign (honestly, DJT should thank FBI not denigrate it)

and wisconsin/michigan went way off polls........ have to check on other places. but maybe iowa (expected R win, but huge win). maybe NC to lesser degree.

now in 2020, do the polls not reflect things properly this time??? lots of reasons they might not. lots of reasons 2020 is different...... imho, the trump shyness voter is much fewer in number. i wonder if we have opposite "someone who dislikes dems who says 'do i really want 4 more years of insanity?" and/or "biden/harris are ok".... honestly, who has visceral rational dislike of biden/harris personally or their policies? mostly uneducated people from mostly white communities it seems.

one thing about progressive votes........ two D supreme court justices are well above 80 years old. R's have one above 70 years old.......... trump/R will probably choose 50 year-old replacements. and if trump is out of office, i bet john roberts goes back way more republican/conservative..... so if trump serves another 4 year term, the supreme court is dead to progressives for the next 25-30 years. that is massive...... gotta get trump out of office way beyond "he's a horrible human being"........... the religious right understands plugging their nose and voting for someone they consider personally vile

we will see.... if voter turnout is heavy, biden wins big.... if election day is a fiasco, who knows?.... not sure who can do this, but can't they have more one in-person voting day? or do they already have that?
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