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Old 08-22-2020, 02:55 PM   #1727
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Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Australia
Posts: 21,438
Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

People overestimate the importance of Trump winning in 2016 in terms of polling errors, the polls were off by 1.5% or so, and Trump ran hot in that he swept the swing states by sub 1%, Clinton campaign got overconfident/Dems got complacent on turnout/Hillary was a unique candidate hated by both all of the right AND the far left

538 had Trump 30% to win and that was about right given where the popular vote ended up and factoring in the polling error, 2016 was just one of the 3 in 10 times he wins

This year he's probably 50% or so if the popular vote is a similar margin to 2016, midwest is trending slightly red but AZ and NC trending slightly blue to offset and FL is TBD with the Puerto Rico voters/felons able to vote changing the demographics and also 4 years of people dying/moving there

I'd say the line on where Biden is a favourite to win the election at winning the popular vote by somewhere between 2.5 and 3 percent. With current polling numbers that would require a polling miss 2-5x where the 2016 polls missed by, in the same direction as in 2016 depending on his national polling numbers day to day (seems to vary between Biden being up 6-9% mostly, with the odd outlier at like 4 or 11 etc)

If Biden does somehow win the popular vote and not the EC vote it'd be absurd that since 1992 the Rs would have only won the popular vote once, but the EC vote 4 times giving them a 50% win rate in elections with a 12.5% popular vote winrate

The Dems need to be as ruthless as Republicans were in 2010 with redistricting if they crush it in 2020; gerrymander everything in their favour in the states they control with the end goal of getting Republicans to agree that gerrymandering is unconstitutional and getting rid of it (along with adding states like DC and Puerto Rico both because they should be states and lessening the electoral college/senate advantage Rs have due to doing better in smaller rural states on average)

It's honestly insane that political parties have anything to do with redistricting, in Australia the electoral commission is nonpartisan and youre not allowed to work there if you are or have been politically active or a member of a party etc (forget the specifics but I actually was considering working there out of uni a decade and change ago)
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