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Old 08-22-2020, 02:43 PM   #1726
Join Date: May 2012
Posts: 4,258
Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

one thing about biden leading or close in the 11-12 swing states (loose definition) is that the state outcomes are correlated.

if trump rallied 4-5 points (unlikely), polls are not highly indicative of the voting population to a 4-5 point difference (pretty much unlikely) or there are voter turnout/suppression issues (quite likely) then all the states will move up together.

florida gets little attention because it's not pennsylvania or wiscsonsin but if biden wins florida (slight 50%+ right now), trump winning election becomes almost impossible. and as mentioned, trump has alienated the military (callous regard for their safety), senior citizens (threaten social security), hispanics (disrespect for them. democratic-bias already i think) in florida
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