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Old 05-25-2020, 04:16 PM   #5
donger
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Join Date: Apr 2004
Location: Portland, OR
Posts: 3,347
Re: Fixed O8: Call flop and turn?

Here's how I see things:
* We have a bluff catcher with bottom two pair if the board should brick out without pairing.

* If we raise flop, it should be for value, since we're not gaining any fold equity against hands that might have us beat at the river.

* Do we have an equity edge? This depends on our opponent's donking range. What do we think a 'little bit tight and passive' SB might be donking here?

In my experience against players like this, they probably aren't betting much worse than A3Jx, and seem to show up with hands like AA3, AA4, A4JJ etc quite often. We're not exactly crushing that range:
ProPokerTools Omaha Hi/Lo Simulation
4,122,960 trials (Exhaustive)
board: J62
Hand Pot equity Scoops Wins HiTies HiWins Lo Ties Lo
Ah6h4c2d50.06% 1,061,2082,139,91613,281962,799644,207
(A3[TT-KK], A322, A366, J6**, AA[3-5], JJ**, AJ3*, AJ4*, 345*):25%49.94% 1,105,7281,969,76313,2811,209,635644,207


I would think that a strategy of raising good turns (deuces, treys, sixes and high hearts) and calling most of the other ones would be the most profitable line to take. Then we'll have a decision at the river. Against an unknown, I'm probably showing this down on most runouts.
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