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Old 09-13-2019, 10:13 PM   #144
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Join Date: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,236
Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

Originally Posted by parttimepro View Post
My takeaways:
This debate will have very little effect on the polls.

-Biden was reasonably sharp in the first half, got worse as the night went on. His answer to the legacy of slavery was a meaningless word soup. He doesn't have Alzheimer's, but he's definitely showing his age. As long as the general election matchups have him beating Trump easily, he'll stay the frontrunner.

-Warren is a true believer. Holy crap, if she wins the presidency she is going to try to fundamentally remake American life. Clear answers, well spoken, and her opponents somehow can't find a way to attack her. Her efficacy against broader audiences will be harmed by her intensity, which should go from a 9 to like a 7.

-Harris is the opposite, believes in nothing. She's going for Female Obama, but doesn't have the talent to pull it off.

-Bernie looked and sounded infirm. He doesn't have another gear. All downhill from here for him.

-Yang is hopelessly outclassed. That top shirt button was doing a lot of work there. He looked like he was going to cry after he started to answer the "Why are you most qualified?" question.

-Buttigieg, wow is that guy wound tight. You didn't see a single unprepared word out of him. He and Klobuchar (whom I've taken to affectionately calling The Klob) are competing to inherit Biden's votes if he stumbles.

-The Klob had her best debate, and I thought came off as a worthy centrist. It's too bad her introduction to the national stage was about how she's abusive to her staffers.

-Booker needs to get his lazy eye fixed. Between that and his hairless skull, he comes off like a robot stuck in the Uncanny Valley.

-Beto, Castro: You guys are still here? Why? Beto could have been a genuine phenomenon if Texas were 2% bluer. It wasn't, and now he looks like a weird loser.

Overall I think the race comes down to Biden and Warren, and Biden's coalition of blacks and moderates beats Warren's white liberals.
Nice recap. It looks to me like Sanders is a clear 3rd with Warren closing the gap some on Joe. Any clue as to who each will announce as their running mate? If Biden really wants to win wouldn't Michelle Obama pretty much seal the deal for him?
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