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Old 09-13-2019, 12:28 PM   #141
parttimepro
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Join Date: Dec 2004
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

My takeaways:
This debate will have very little effect on the polls.

-Biden was reasonably sharp in the first half, got worse as the night went on. His answer to the legacy of slavery was a meaningless word soup. He doesn't have Alzheimer's, but he's definitely showing his age. As long as the general election matchups have him beating Trump easily, he'll stay the frontrunner.

-Warren is a true believer. Holy crap, if she wins the presidency she is going to try to fundamentally remake American life. Clear answers, well spoken, and her opponents somehow can't find a way to attack her. Her efficacy against broader audiences will be harmed by her intensity, which should go from a 9 to like a 7.

-Harris is the opposite, believes in nothing. She's going for Female Obama, but doesn't have the talent to pull it off.

-Bernie looked and sounded infirm. He doesn't have another gear. All downhill from here for him.

-Yang is hopelessly outclassed. That top shirt button was doing a lot of work there. He looked like he was going to cry after he started to answer the "Why are you most qualified?" question.

-Buttigieg, wow is that guy wound tight. You didn't see a single unprepared word out of him. He and Klobuchar (whom I've taken to affectionately calling The Klob) are competing to inherit Biden's votes if he stumbles.

-The Klob had her best debate, and I thought came off as a worthy centrist. It's too bad her introduction to the national stage was about how she's abusive to her staffers.

-Booker needs to get his lazy eye fixed. Between that and his hairless skull, he comes off like a robot stuck in the Uncanny Valley.

-Beto, Castro: You guys are still here? Why? Beto could have been a genuine phenomenon if Texas were 2% bluer. It wasn't, and now he looks like a weird loser.

Overall I think the race comes down to Biden and Warren, and Biden's coalition of blacks and moderates beats Warren's white liberals.
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