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Old 09-09-2019, 11:51 AM   #132
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Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 1,262
Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

Added to my no-hopers shorts, selling Buttigieg at 7 and Harris at 11. YouGov came out with some early-state polls, and Biden/Warren/Sanders are the only ones in double digits anywhere. So basically I'm short everyone except Biden and Warren, for a total price of 78. Could short Biden here for a guaranteed profit and a freeroll on Warren, but as I said earlier I think he's still the favorite.

Yang is, hilariously, up to 12% to win.

Comey is still trading in the high teens to be indicted this year. I guess he's a frequent target on Fox News and such? Anyway, the message board on that bet is insane.

Took a long position on Netanyahu getting indicted, at 25-28%. Basically it's a bet that Likud will not be in the ruling coalition of the Knesset after the September elections. Israeli politics are like a soap opera with all the different personalities and feuds, and like 10 parties. I have no idea what the inter-party wrangling will produce, but I think there's at least a 25% chance that the spring elections repeat themselves and Netanyahu gets thrown overboard somehow.
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