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Old 09-18-2015, 07:54 AM   #10
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Join Date: Feb 2013
Location: Corner of Walk/Don't Walk
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Re: 15 outs Flop to river %?

Originally Posted by blank0909 View Post
thank you for your detailed explanation it helped a lot.
I think it is very good to understand the basis of all the 'math' associated with poker, but to 'practice' these calculations I think is pushing it a bit too far. A lot of the 'old timers' will remember seeing Barry Greenstein tanking during a tournament ... and he actually was constructing these formulas in his head and slowing down the play greatly.

You should get a poker odds app or play with one online and create situations that you may have questions about or were involved with ... but do it AWAY FROM THE TABLE PLEASE. Once you review these spots a few times you will start to 'automatically' recognize them while you play and 'know' what spot you are involved with.

I may be expanding your definition of 'practice' too much but there are many factors in poker to work with 'on top' of the pure math. Use all of these factors to make your decisions and the more you check these out away from the table the more comfortable you will be at the table.

You may have 15 outs, but how many of them are good? Do/did any of the other opponents in the hand have/need the same outs but folded out?

I know/understand the math (pretty much) but I 'know' I include the live feel/reads into my game more than a lot of players as well and that serves me much better mentally than cranking out specific percentages. Poker is incomplete information and, yes, we are forced to do math assuming we have good data.

Basically what I'm saying (and probably offending some in the process) is that if you are getting all caught up in plus/minus 5% spots when making decisions in poker I think you are pressing too much. These are basically =EV spots that will drain your brain. Are you telling me that if you are getting 2 to 1 you will call when you are 36% favorite but not 29%? ... and you expect yourself to be able to calculate all that during the hand?

Math purists will say 'yes' of course .. over 10,000 hands this will pay off better for you. I may be hugely naive but I do know that my brain will drain if I expected myself to be that specific through an 8 hour session. GL
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