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Old 08-07-2015, 05:14 AM   #186
MissileDog
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Join Date: Jan 2009
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Re: Flower, Cinnamon Stick, & Sabo


News of Sabo's 2015
Dog Day Championship

Quote:
Originally Posted by MissileDog View Post
... even though Sabo won't wasn't there, it's a pivotal game in the dog game season... If the Astros (1-0) win, they'd tie the Cubs (2-0) for first, and eliminate the Mariners (2-1), Mets (2-2), Orioles (0-0), and the defending champion White Sox (0-0)...
That's just what happened as the Astros won 5-4 in 10, beating the A's (0-2, elim), completing an undefeated dog game season at 2-0. The next dog game is Tuesday, August 18th... the D'backs (1-0) facing elimination in Pittsburgh (2-6, elim).

Pour one out for the star-crossed Orioles, and one for the defending champion White Sox, who got eliminated before they even had a chance to play in front of the dogs. With the four teams eliminated last night we're down to just ten runners... the Astros and Cubs tied for first, half a game ahead of a seven team peloton, with the Nationals (2-3) bringing up the rear.

However, we can get a better look at the two races by consulting the respective Playoff Reports from the Baseball Prospectus and the Sabo-Metric Prospectus. Just like the BP, the SMP takes the schedule, and underlying team strength, into consideration.

World Series%Sabo's DDC%
(19-team field)37.1Cubs (2-0)29.5 #1
Dodgers (61-46)18.3 #1Braves (1-0)20.5 #2
Astros (60-49)12.4 #2Card's (1-0)18.7 #3
Card's (68-39)11.2 #3(5-team field)16.2
Yankees (60-46)11.0 #4Rays (1-0)9.3 #4
Royals (63-43)10.0 #5Phillies (2-1)5.8 #5

The Cubs are sitting pretty, tied for first place... but they don't control their own destiny. They need to win one more time in Pittsburgh, and hope the Braves and Cards lose a game. OTOH, the Braves do control their own destiny. They only need to win out in DC, then at home vs. the Phillies. There's plenty of scenarios that have a team from the 5-team field winning. The odds range from the Reds (3-2) at 5.3% to the D'Backs at 1.0%. The Rays need to beat the Orioles and hope six other teams lose. The Phillies need to win out in GA & DC, and hope the Cubs and Card's lose.


Last edited by MissileDog; 08-07-2015 at 05:24 AM.
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