Quote:
Originally Posted by kylefrey
no one even thinks this is even close?
Some people 4b fold AJo/ATo too,
Plus I felt like the player was playing LAG (opening 5/5 sb).
I weighted his value range to:
100% AQo, AJs, ATs, A7s, A5s (7combos)
50% A9s, A8s, A6s, A4s, A3s, A2s, AJo, ATo (6 combos)
1 combo of 88
So we'd need 7 bluff combos for call to be break even w the price were getting
FWIW i folded.
It's hard to make too much deductions from 100% SB-open. Already 50% from BB to that open makes it better move than folding. So from that we cannot deduct AJo and ATo off so much.
I would look how should it look like if he had something else in the beginning and make an estimate about his bluffing combos there.
At SB he opens 1225 combos, will defend maybe 200-300 out of them against your raise.
Check-call @ flop makes it practically impossible for good player to float with absolute trash. He might call with Ax, Middle pair or draw. Only draws are your possible bluff hands later in the hand as you will loose to other hands.
The draws are 86 + 64 which he will most likely fold preflop and then some straigth draws. There are 45 FD-combos possible including trash combos like 2c9c, so he might have at flop 10-15 strongest FD-combos.
If we assume that he donks 50% of his bluff hands at turn and 50% Jam at river we will end up with only 25% from these maximum FD-combos. This would leave him to have around 4 bluff combos so this would be a clear pot for folding.
This would change only if he is maniac enough to float OOP with worse hands which I suspect most winning players won't do.