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Old 06-16-2013, 10:39 PM   #19
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 817
Re: Simulated risk of ruin in $1500 WSOP events

Originally Posted by TT_fold View Post
While this is very interesting in theory, we can't enter $1.5k WSOPs year-round nor make them our sole form of income. So I'm all for taking shots and keeping a larger % of myself even if it gives me a high theoretical risk of ruin since there are only a finite number of $1.5k's each summer. Then I can just bust my ass a little harder at online stuff if I do poorly.

I guess things would be different if I weren't so overrolled for online play, or if mid-high stakes MTTs required a bigger roll. Like, I only need a $50k roll to play a $80-$100 ABI at small field online MTTs/low-midstakes cash games. But then I step into the live arena and I'm technically not rolled for even the lowest of WSOP tourneys.

Originally Posted by TT_fold View Post
I have more than 50k, but I'm pretty confident that's an adequate roll for $90 ABI with an avg field size of 300 especially given my edge over the fields
The problem is if you take 100% of yourself at the WSOP on a $50k roll (even if that is just an effective roll that wouldn't be comfortable having a nonzero chance of going through) is that so much of your expected profit and expected peak downswing for the year will happen during this month. Your basically gambling that you won't have an online downswing soon after leaving Vegas.

If you sandwich a couple median WSOPs (i.e. iirc losing >15k is the median result playing all the low WSOP stuff) between a bad run online in the 10 months in between you could easily run thru 50k especially if expenses are coming out of that. I'm sure you know what is possible even in 300 person fields.
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