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Old 06-15-2013, 01:41 AM   #10
gostatego
Pooh-Bah
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 5,752
Re: Simulated risk of ruin in $1500 WSOP events

Quote:
Originally Posted by MUD View Post
Some fascinating #s imo:

Selling 50% at 1.2 with 45k bankroll = $642 avg profit/tourney and 26% chance of going broke

BuyIn 600.00000
BR (in Buyins) 75.00000
ROI % 107.81345
SD 13515.94292
Trad. Ruin % 72.70979
Iter. Ruin % 26.21671
Sim. Ruin % 26.83000



Selling 65% at 1.2 with 45k bankroll = $543 avg profit/tourney and 1.2% chance of going broke

Sims 10000.000000
BuyIn 330.000000
BR (in Buyins) 136.363636
ROI % 164.464739
SD 9465.861958
Trad. Ruin % 57.975998
Iter. Ruin % 1.228852
Sim. Ruin % 1.140000
Sim. Win % 98.860000

So the hypothetical player with 45k bankroll and 66% ROI has is 2600% more likely to go broke but only makes 14% more money selling 50% instead of 65%

Interesting... Does the risk of ruin change proportionally with the size of the bankroll.

For example if the player has a 90k bankroll do they have half the chance of going broke or is it less because of the extra amount of buyins
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