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Old 05-19-2013, 06:14 PM   #1
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 817
Simulated risk of ruin in $1500 WSOP events

I have been thinking about bankroll management a lot leading up to the WSOP this year. Most bankroll calculators use Kelly Criterion which assumes you can move up and down in stakes marginally with no change in ROI. Of course this is not even close to true. For the $1500 WSOP tourneys you can't move down to a similar tourney in terms of ROI and entrant size but lower buyin. Your only real option in moving down is to reduce your relative stakes by selling action or getting a backing deal. And there is nowhere to go to the upside, because ROIs go down as we go up in stakes from here except for a handful of the field.

I think in this case Risk of Ruin calculations are more applicable.

Anyway the guy in this thread made a simulation program

I input the payout structure of the opening weekend $1500 from last year and what I think to be a realistic distribution of finish positions, gradually going from 2.3 times more likely to win to 1.2 times to mincash than the normal distributed breakeven "average" player.

Sims 10000.000000
BuyIn 1500.000000
BR (in Buyins) 300.000000
ROI % 66.250760
SD 27019.189471
Trad. Ruin % 29.372132
Iter. Ruin % 5.101826
Sim. Ruin % 4.630000
Sim. Win % 95.370000

So that player would have a 14% ITM (10% payout structre) and 66% ROI but would have a 5% percent chance of running through a $450k bankroll (before they get to $1.5 million in profit) if that was all they played.

I will post a few more Simulations after I run them.

Finish Dist% in spoiler for those who might want to suggest better ones

Last edited by MUD; 05-19-2013 at 06:26 PM.
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