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Old 06-13-2011, 02:55 PM   #636
wins_pot
Brandon Adams
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 550
Re: Tennis bet vs Patrik

Sorry boys. Poor performance.

The confusion about the odds (295 to 30 vs 355 to 50) stems from the fact that the last increase in action (additional 60k to 20k) was not independent (it was tied to other bet, where in May '12 he will play me for 100k and spot me 30-love every time he serves).

Some of my thoughts about the match:
-He's got too much toughness for me. He missed 0% of his approach shots. He literally did not miss any time I put a ball at the service line in a rally. He drilled short balls into the corners for either a winner or a putaway on the next ball.
-The umpire rushed me and otherwise made me uncomfortable. We made a big mistake in having a chair ump run the match; we should have just had him on standby in case there was a problem.
-I warmed up for 15min with a friend and then for 5 min with Pat. I should have warmed up for 45min with my friend. Maybe even longer. In this match, it would have suited me to be a bit worn down at the start.
-Playing a high pressure match is just a completely different game relative to practice matches/hitting sessions. I really underestimated this. I should have drilled less, and spent more time playing tournaments and matches and money games.
-About two weeks ago I discovered that preworkout stuff (like Pump Fuel) is amazing for tennis. I took one serving of that before the match. Unfortunately, as prkts predicted, the preworkout formulas are great for practice but terrible for a match; the caffeine in them just increases match jitters.
-I never got into anything like a zone. There were too many thoughts buzzing through my head and everything happened far too quickly. Dangerfish told me that, come match time, the key to success for me would be to clear my head and let instinct reign, and unfortunately I never came close to doing that. Everything felt rushed and hurried and I couldn't settle down and get control of my thoughts.
-Despite the score, there were scenarios where I win. We were filmed playing baseline games two weeks ago and I won two out of three. We both started the match nervous and tight. If I had kept it close early, he would have gotten tighter and tighter and I would have gotten looser and looser; instead he got progressively looser and I got tighter. I won the first game of the second set and had good opportunities in the second game; a 2-0 lead in that set would have cleared some mental blockages for me and potentially allowed me to get into a rhythm.
-I wouldn't take 10-1 tomorrow. He's too good. He was a lot sharper than I expected he would be when I made the bet (this is the way prop betting usually works, by the way). If he laid me 100k-5k tomorrow, though, I'd take it for sure.
-One reason I made the bet is b/c I always suspected that Patrik didn't have much natural talent for tennis. I thought he was a bit mechanical and robotic. Well, that's definitely not true. He has amazing natural talent for the game, and I think he could have been a top player. My friend Prakash Armritraj (2002 winner at Kalamazoo) watched him two weeks ago and said that his natural talent rates 10 of 10. So, in retrospect, that was my big mistake --- in tennis or golf, you can't make a long-term bet with someone who has more natural talent, because you will never win. I just made the mistake of thinking that our natural talent levels were similar (and, yes, I know that this is absurd from an outside perspective).
-In golf betting, Patrik and I are even despite him making incredibly bad bets against me. This is b/c I break down mentally a bit in big spots and he never does (a rare quality). In tennis this turns out to be a huge factor and it goes along way towards explaining his 100% success rate on approach shots. Most humans couldn't do that no matter what their level of natural talent or preparation. Patrik's mental poise must also go a long way towards explaining why his poker results are a hundred times better than legions of young kids with sharper minds and better analytical approaches to the game. He should be off the charts in this neuropeptide Y stuff..... http://www.newsweek.com/id/184156/page/1
-Overall, hard to say whether these prop bets are good or not. You test yourself, which I think is always a good thing. But then if you fail, you don't feel good about that. You spend a lot of time and money preparing. You get in shape, but you also tend to push yourself to injury. Overall I don't know --- seems bad, but it doesn't really matter since Patrik and I have already placed a bet for next year. I would like to take the next one less seriously, b/c this one I allowed the pressure to continuously mount in a way that made good, loose play during match time impossible.

Brandon
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