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Old 09-04-2009, 12:57 PM   #144
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Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: in your head
Posts: 3,760
Re: *~* Quick Checkup Thread - PLO flavour *~*

Originally Posted by Poker monkey View Post
Sorry if this is getting off-topic for a quick check-up thread, but it's an interesting hand. If we had a read that told us that he had random AA there 100% of the time, so we're a 56-44 favourite and he's obviously trying to get it in on the flop, which do you think is more +EV, raising or flatting?

What if we're a 50.1-49.9 favourite? Or a 49-51 dog?

What if we're 500bb deep?

What I'm suggesting is that when you have position, your implied odds on later streets can be more valuable than pressing small edges on the flop.

When I suggested "slowplaying", it's not because we have a huge equity advantage or anything, but it's like a situation on the river where say you have the second nuts, you're obviously smashing his range, but there's often not a lot of point in raising because you're only getting called by better. Similar situation here.

I see what you are saying, but in this spot we only really have RIO on later streets.

Flush card comes - non-flush hands are mucking, bigger flushes take our monies.
Straightening card come - I doubt it an extra two-pair or a small set will pay us off.
Brick falls off - all these made hands go way up in value versus our draw-only hand, which is bad because we don't want to put money in the pot now and will probably get bet into on the turn.

For our implied odds to be positive we need to either:
a) Get more action from a wider range of hands when we hit a gin card; or
b) Play for a larger pot against the same range when we have an equity edge.

We won't get more action from worse hands by flatting the flop raise. He probably won't fold any set on this flop and he's committed with pretty much any straight or flush draw (and the pot is large enough that we simply want him to fold any straight draw anyway). The weak straight draws that he isn't committed with now are only going to put in more chips when we both hit on the turn and then the only good that comes is that we have a small freeroll for the flush draw (which we might lose anyway); this is more than compensated for by the times he folds the flop to our re-raise and we win the pot there and then.

We aren't deep enough to win a larger pot because we are looking at all-in/pot commitment already. If there were at least 3 more large bets left in our stacks I can see arguments for flatting and trying to get one large bet in on the turn (or checking through if a bad card comes), and evaluating our options on the river based on what falls off.
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