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Old 08-04-2009, 03:18 PM   #522
jackwilcox
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Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: phuket, thailand
Posts: 9,843
Re: NL10 to NL200 experiment - finding a way to beat each limit

2nd hand:

villain seems like a reg playing 19/19. i dont expect him to stack off particularly lightly on a board like this.


Poker Stars $25.00 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

Hero (SB): $42.15
BB: $41.80
UTG: $99.00
CO: $5.00
BTN: $26.55

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is SB with J Q
2 folds, BTN raises to $0.85, Hero calls $0.75, 1 fold

standard flat here. this is the sort of hand i will flat from the blinds vs button/ cut off openers. id be folding it to an utg open, as it wouldnt have an equity advantage over their pre flop holdings.
3betting takes away a lot of the value that arises from domination issues where the flop is Qxx and you have QJ vs his Q9s or something.

Flop: ($1.95) T 9 4 (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $1.50, Hero raises to $4.75, BTN calls $3.25

i expect him to be cbetting this board a lot so a c/r should show an immediate profit based on the amount of folds i get. when called i still have a lot of equity in the pot.
i can represent quite a strong hand by c/ring this flop as i can have 44, 99, TT quite often considering the small range of hands i am playing from the blinds.
when he flats, i assume his range to be Tx and overpairs. i dont think he would slowplay a set on this board, and id expect a flush draw to try and get it all in on the flop when they have the most equity (obviously flush draws lose equity when turn bricks) and before they hit their flush which might kill the action.

Turn: ($11.45) 6 (2 players)
Hero bets $6.50, BTN calls $6.50

a good turn card for me as unlikely the 6 improved him unless he has 78 (small part of his range). i can continue to represent a strong hand by betting because sets are well within my range, and if i was semi-bluffing on the flop with 78 i just hit too.
his flat call to me looks like Tx still not believing, or a stubborn overpair that doesnt want to fold. i cant see why he would continue to slowplay now the pot is big.

River: ($24.45) 9 (2 players)
Hero bets $30.05, BTN calls $14.45 all in

i was planning to shut down on river if i didnt improve but i think this is the perfect bluff card. i cant ever see him having a big hand after flatting flop and turn, whereas i can now represent boats and flushes (id be check/raising flush draws on the flop, especially if they had a gutshot to go with them e.g. KJ).
so i decide to shove. i think there is literally no way he can call with Tx or an overpair. he might call with AA just because people get too attached to it, but that specific hand is such a small part of his range.
note, my effective shove is $14.45, which is just under 2/3rds pot, so i only have to be successfull here 40% of the time. if he "flips a coin" to decide, then i show a profit.

unfortunately i get called by K2 which i think he played really badly. obviously in this spot i have total air, but i dont have history with him so he could never know i am bluffing here. i am never shoving a worse hand for value on the river (i.e. i would only have A high flushes or boats) so i think he should either be folding the flop (as he is miles behind my value range and has reverse implied odds when he hits) or he should shove the flop if he thinks i am bluffing. QJ is literally the only bluff i can show up with in this spot, and its never going to be often enough to justify this call
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