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 01-17-2017, 09:38 PM #1 stankpup stranger   Join Date: Oct 2014 Posts: 9 Maximizing Payout in an NFL Pick'em League I'm in a season long NFL pick'em pool where if the Falcons lose & the Pats win, I win. If the Falcons win, I lose. If the Falcons lose & the Pats lose, I lose. I'm trying to figure out how to maximize my payout while also guaranteeing a positive payout in all scenarios. I'm struggling with the math behind it so figured I'd start here...maybe this would make for a good discussion & explanation on the show as part of the Math topic of the week? Or as another chapter in DUCY? Here are the details... Pool buy-in was \$50 with 10 players so I stand to win \$450 (plus initial buy in) Atlanta to win straight up is currently about -195 Parlay for Atlanta to lose and the Pats to lose is about +675 Is this the right way to be modeling this out? And if so, how can I figure out the optimal bets for #2 & #3 (in yellow below)? Finally, since the straight up bet for Atlanta is so low I'm considering not placing it...if I do that, what's the optimal bet for just #3? FYI: - Amt = The bet size - Win = What the total payout (bet + wining amount) would be if that scenario won - Net Win = Win less Total amount of all 3 bets
 01-18-2017, 07:21 PM #2 AdamSchwartz Shippy McShiperson     Join Date: Dec 2007 Location: 2 twins no cups Posts: 8,466 Re: Maximizing Payout in an NFL Pick'em League I'm of the firm belief that hedging sports bets is a bad idea, unless it's for a life changing amount of money. Most of the time you just end up paying more juice.
 01-18-2017, 10:00 PM #3 stankpup stranger   Join Date: Oct 2014 Posts: 9 Re: Maximizing Payout in an NFL Pick'em League Fair enough...out of curiosity, outside of the extra juice any other reason to avoid hedging?
 01-19-2017, 12:32 PM #4 Doozie350 grinder     Join Date: May 2009 Location: Land of the Free USA#1 Posts: 437 Re: Maximizing Payout in an NFL Pick'em League So you can win more than ~200. If the min win isn't life changing then yolo
 01-22-2017, 08:42 PM #5 PeteBlow Pooh-Bah   Join Date: May 2012 Location: Guildford, UK Posts: 5,914 Re: Maximizing Payout in an NFL Pick'em League That went well...
 01-25-2017, 10:10 PM #6 stankpup stranger   Join Date: Oct 2014 Posts: 9 Re: Maximizing Payout in an NFL Pick'em League Adam & Co - I ended up taking your advice and not hedging and the Falcons ended up blowing out the Packers so no payday. I didn't care as much as I thought I would to be honest so appreciate the advice to just let it ride (as it's far from life changing \$\$). I agree in the podcast that if you're doing a parlay I wouldn't hedge the last game...what felt different in this case was that being Fantasy, there was really one game that was going to decide it and I had the heavy underdog in it. I wonder if a better analogy would have been me heads up facing a chip deficit, in which case I would have been better off trying to make a deal with the other guy I was up against (if I did want to ensure winning something).

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