Villain is 12/8/4.3 with 68% fold to flop cbet, 42% fold to turn cbet and all over a useful sample size.

a) What is villains range once he calls flop
b) How do we maximize against the hands in that range we beat; but
c) How do we minimize losses when we are beat?

ergo, what's our plan?

Full Tilt Poker $1/$2 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players - View hand 23972
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

BTN: $225.20
SB: $41.00
BB: $54.70
UTG: $61.70
UTG+1: $25.00
MP1: $200.00
Hero (MP2): $200.00
CO: $200.00

Pre Flop: ($3.00) Hero is MP2 with K Q
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $2, 1 fold, Hero raises to $9, CO calls $9, 4 folds

Flop: ($23.00) 2 Q 6 (2 players)
Hero bets $16, CO calls $16

Turn: ($55.00) 6 (2 players)
Hero?

Just noticed flop cbet is a bit small for me??? Hmmm?

Flop bet is just fine. Why should it be bigger? No need to charge draws coz there aren´t any of importance.

I expect villain to have a pair and bet $36.

is he calling a turn bet with a mid pair?
ur range probably has him beat barreling teh turn, unless u usually barrel to get him off a PP

lol

I c/c turn, if he checks I bet river for $44. If he bets turn and river then river would be very read dependant, but probably a fold.

You two are picking up on the problem as I see it. Wakeup, I don't think he is; I think he'll generally believe the second shell here and fold a PP. That suggests the c/c turn line but I also loath handing him control OOP because it's a horrible spot if he bets the river having bet the turn. On the one hand you would be right to believe he has us beat...but on the other hand we went call gay and weak and he might feel he can shift us from less than Qx with a solid river bet.

I think checking the turn is probably the best way to maximize but it's also that way that will allow villain to extract the most value from us when he has KQ beat here.

I 2-barrel air here against a dude that folds 42% to turn cbet, so I certainly 2-barrel my good hands as well.

If you always give up after 1 c-bet, then feel free to check.

gay betting can be good here. you are not worried about being outdrawn.
cc is also fine i think.

How gay? $25 gay, $20 gay or $15 gay?

not sure, i have just started incorporating gayness into my game myself, but in general i think it should be something so irresistibly gay that villain has to call. maybe bet 16 again. it depends on villain's aggro level here tho - some villain's will always bet a middling pair here to protect against A/K, whereas others will always go for pot control. if you think he is more of the first type, then you should obviously cc, as he is guaranteed to bet more than 16.

I think he'd probably bet to set his showdown price and deny free odds to hit. I actually wonder if an optimal line might be to check-call and then donk-lead pretty much any river for 35-45% of the final pot. Doubtful this is the sort of villain that would auto-shove over such a line so if he raises we can fold with confidence. However, such a tard line might encourage a hero call but also has block3r (swear filter gone funny?) properties since a good number of the hands that beat us will probably only call that bet but would have value bet harder if checked to.

With this line we usually get more value on the turn as villain is likely to bet reasonable often and to usually bet more than he'd call. We lose less with c/call and donk/fold to his monster hands than we would with c/call+c/call and if villain calls our smallish river bet with a lesser hand then that's a world of value we'd never have achieved with a standard betting line. Also, if we are wrong and villain checks the turn through then the river is a super easy bet-fold for value and will stand a reasonable chance of being called by inferior hands.

I am pretty sure your line is the best Ace.

interesting but with Top pair good kicker i think a bet of 16 will probably put us in some tough situations against agressive oponentes raising our 16$ turn bet i think a c/c line is better here

Yeah, I think Ace's line is definitely better, just thinking out loud

Btw, I bet $33 on this occasion and immediately figured it was sub-optimal which is why I created the thread.

villains range once he calls flop is obv midpairs/worse Q/floatation. as villain is fairly aggro, you can get a ton of value from this hand by check calling turn and river. I don't think betting this turn again is ever going to get value from a worse hand, or make a better hand fold. betting turn here is pretty horrible imo.

Am I from another world that I bet-bet-bet with a TPTK-ish hand?
I can do the same with nothing and let villain figure out whats up.

You only 3-barrel with the nuts? Or only with air? Why not show your cards?

Bet more on the flop ($21) and more on the turn ($52) next time. I'm not sure why you are trying to pot control on such a harmless board. The hands beating us at this point are far and few in between considering he just called our isolation bet preflop. I can't imagine taking a pot control line in this spot when we flopped such a monster. But thats just me.

This hand isn't about pot-control. I'm not that worried about being beat. It's about value maximization.

since when was flopping a Q with KQ a monster? are you saying your comfortable just 3 streeting your stack in here? I mean do you really think your ever getting called by QJ or something like TT? or JJ? i think theres a reason you have 3 poasts

yeah i kinda think you are....against a 12/8 theres no excuse for looking to 3 street your stack in here. your value in this hand needs to come from checking 1 street at some point to obtain river value from worse hands, and induce bluffs from floatations.

There are obviously different ways to play the hand.

We can play the hand in a super safe manner where we assume that villain flopped middle set just because he called our c-bet on the flop. Back when I was a huge nit I always used to always think like that. I ended up missing tons of values and got constantly outdrawn because I never protected my hand.

Or alternatively we can try to get paid and at the same time make sure Villain doesn't suck out on us on the turn or the river. Betting more on the flop and more on the turn accomplishes this by milking Villain on the flop and showing him that we mean business on the turn.

Honestly if you are afraid of getting stacks in on a flop of Q46 with KQ, 100bbs deep, then you probably shouldn't be playing KQ preflop. Unless of course you're waiting for that miracle flop of KKQ.

Exactly right. When we c/c in situations like this, sometimes our opponent will make a small mistake and sometimes we will make a large mistake. Bet/fold here to avoid exposing yourself to guessing on the large bets at the end of the hand.

This line essentially has the same merit as bet/fold turn, but costs you more overall imo.

That is full ring, villain will probably have KK (yeah, I know it is not possible, but it is full ring, so it is possible).

Disagree. You're not allowing for what a predicament you put yourself in when you check the turn oop to a good opponent. He'll own you by betting the turn and river a lot, and one of three things will happen: (1) Often, when he's behind, he'll bluff you off the best hand; (2) sometimes you'll call with no idea where you are and pay off a huge hand; (3) sometimes, but less often than either (1) or (2), you'll still have no idea where you are and he'll be bluffing and you'll call and be a hero.....I prefer not to put myself in situations that have such a high degree of uncertainty when large amounts are at risk.