Villain is 40/20 and seems to be standard losing player. I put him on a flush draw b/c of the action on flop. That's why I continue on the turn, and he calls pretty much confirming my original thoughts.

Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 8 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

Hero (MP2): $104
CO: $48.50
BTN: $127.75
SB: $174.05
BB: $101.50
UTG: $36.65
UTG+1: $154.35
MP1: $98.50

Pre-Flop: A Q dealt to Hero (MP2)
UTG calls $1, 2 folds, Hero raises to $5, CO folds, BTN calls $5, 3 folds

Flop: ($12.50) 6 J 3 (2 Players)
Hero bets $9, BTN calls $9

Turn: ($30.50) 2 (2 Players)
Hero bets $25, BTN calls $25

River: ($80.50) 9 (2 Players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $88.75 and is All-In, Hero???


I think this a missed flush by this particular player 99.9% of the time. He would try to get value out of a J or two pair even. He pretty much snap called on the flop and turn.

Any thoughts? I think calling here is tough, but correct nonetheless.

-TylerT

You've put in 40 bucks and wanna call 90 more with ace high on river? I guess if your read is that 'dead on' or you have a note of him shoving rivers when he misses draws, then take the gamble, you seem extremely confident of the decision but I think it's kind of a hero play and spewy.

uhh, fold.

not gonna read thread, but want to point out that i can recall two times when i called with aq or aj for big bets on river and lost to ak, or 22 in the pocket. id save those hero calls for small pairs and ak, a well timed called by ak will make you want to kill youself seriousl

Then call.

lol @ saying this is a missed flush draw 99.9 percent of the time and then asking us if we can fold. I'll be honest and say your math is a tinyyyyyyyyy bit off but if it's even 50 percent of the time he makes this move with a missed flush draw you have to call.

Yea, your getting odds. But seriously, this is never a call for me even if i got a good read. Even if he thinks he is bluffing he most likely has you beat anyway with a small pair. I give up on the turn.

It'd be pretty sick if villain shows up w/ 45(diamonds), Ad2d or Ad3d or some other 3dxd/2dxd combo. I think there are a LOT of missed FDs in his range that beat you. Against a player like this, waiting for a better hand to snap him off is probably better than making allin calls with A high.

BUT HE HAS A FLUSH DRAW 99.9 PERCENT OF THE TIME

I need to find me one of these odds calculators that tell me to the tenths place what % of the time a villain has a particular hand.

If you really estimate Villain to have an FD 40% or more here (I say 40% because you have to take into account the times a flush draw actually beats you), you should call. However, 38/17s simply don't understand their own hands and might show up with some like ridiculous 88 here.

If you are that confident, you don't have to ask. In fact, it's nearly the easiest call possible.

>_<

lol

what you don't know is that a lot of missed FD's turn their hands into bluffs, but are still value betting them against your AQ (on accident of course)

The only problem with calling here to pick off a bluff is that in many cases, you can't even beat a bluff.

that's what she said, and that's what i said.

If this is a missed FD 99.99% of the time, you cannot fold. Ever.