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I think I've lost my gamble.  What to do? I think I've lost my gamble.  What to do?

10-13-2009 , 03:00 PM
(Warning: long story. tl;dr version at the bottom.)

Hi.

It's me.

That kid who was considering not finishing his B.A. because he was making more money playing poker than he could by doing anything else, maybe even including a job he could get with his degree.

Now I'm considering going to grad school because I don't think I can make money playing poker or by using my B.A.

I'm really confused and I'm hoping some 2p2ers could offer some insight. Anybody who wants to say "I/we told you so" is totally entitled to that feeling, but please don't clutter this thread with that. This thread isn't about my previous dropping out thread. It's about what's happened since then.

So, if you don't know/remember: between the middle of March '09 and August '09 I was consistently making money by playing poker and I was always improving my game. I was growing my bankroll and had no real financial responsibilities to worry about. I was making at least $30/hour playing a game I really enjoyed. Losses were never anything more an an inconvenience and winning felt good. I loved the challenge involved in making the correct decision(s) and I was so relieved that I didn't have to worry about money, at least until I had to start paying back my student loan debt after school.

I posted my thread here about dropping out and because of all of the skeptical or otherwise negative responses I got, I got really motivated to try and become more than just a winning player at NL100, so I could prove everybody wrong.

I took (properly rolled) shots at NL200 that didn't go well and had to move back down to NL100. That was fine. But NL100 wasn't going very well either. I had been on pace to have a $2k month and now I was in danger of having my first breakeven month since getting serious about cash games.

I came back to school (in Buffalo) and decided to take $600 to Niagara Falls for a weekend of boosting my bankroll at the soft $1/$2 tables. It didn't go so well. I spent the first few hours of the trip doing pretty well, I was up about $100 and change. However, a lost coinflip and a couple 3-outers later, I was leaving Niagara Falls with $400+ less than I came with. At the time, I was disappointed but I was also mostly okay with it. It sucked to lose that much while I was already downswinging pretty hard online, but I felt like I played well. Losing less than 3 buy-ins isn't exactly the grossest.

But I kept losing. My Stars balance had peaked at ~$5100 (which I had built from having less than $400 in March...no big tournament scores...all cash grinding and using very responsible BRM) and it was suddenly at ~$3500. I decided that cashing out $700 and moving down to NL50 could give me a fresh perspective and it did.

But I still kept losing. Being hundreds of dollars below EV in a week isn't a big deal if you're playing small-mid stakes, but when you've just moved down to rebuild your bankroll, it's devastating. I was significantly emotionally affected by losses for the first time in a very long time. If you would have given me 5:1 on a coinflip for stakes I could afford, I probably wouldn't have taken it. I couldn't emotionally handle losing any more money gambling, especially from making +EV plays.

I eventually got my courage back and decided to try STTs. It didn't go great, but it didn't ruin my bankroll. I played some stud as well (which I think is my best game, but you get a garbage hourly compared to NL) and got 7th'd like crazy. I went back to NL50 and it just all kept going badly. Even if I was making mistakes regularly, it certainly didn't totally account for my results.

I then decided that I couldn't shrug off a loss in the order of just three figures in a day anymore. It was either quit poker for good or move way down. I chose the latter and cashed out all but $500 of my remaining bankroll. I'm very likely studying abroad next semester and it will cost some thousands more than a normal semester so I needed to protect at least $1500 or so from variance.

Some $3.40/$5.50 STTs and NL10 sessions came and went and now my poker bankroll is sitting at $444.

I honestly don't understand how I ever made money playing poker. Variance is being super sick and I'm in a place where I don't understand how people overcome it. I've lost a ridiculous amount of BIs with KK. I've run into AA or lost with the best of it way more than anybody would be comfortable with. Also, KK isn't 0% against AA AIPF. But that's how I've run since the middle of August. I've got KK all in against AA preflop at least 8 times and I haven't spiked a K or caught a straight once in this span. I'm getting unlucky to lose even when I'm not getting the best of it! Certainly I'm not the only person to have a run like this, but on a whole it's extremely discouraging.

But something that I think I understand better than most gamblers is that no matter what the probabilities are (unless they're 100%), there's no guarantee that you'll ever win another hand. Unless you believe in a very specific kind of divinity, there's nothing stopping a perfectly ordinary coin from coming up heads 1,000 times in a row. There is no natural force dictating that tails needs to come up ever.

And I'm sick of betting on tails. Even if I'm getting +EV odds, I'm sick of putting money in a pot that very well may not come back my way. The competition aspect isn't interesting me anymore either, unfortunately. I'm not interested in taking money from players worse than me either.

I don't know what to do. I spent so much time studying the game and think I can confidently say that I turned myself into a very skilled player. I was so ambitious and wanted to beat the middle stakes and maybe eventually high stakes, but now I don't even care. I don't think I'd play a big tournament if someone staked me for it and I've played only a handful of sessions in the past two weeks.

Each losing session, whether I made Sklansky bucks or not, is increasingly discouraging. For the past two months, I've been taking two steps back, one step forward, and then two more steps back. Before the middle of August, the opposite was true. Maybe I was running way better than average, but variance alone can't account for my previous success playing poker.

If I withdraw the $444 remaining in my account for my semester abroad this Spring, it's not unlikely that I'll come out of the trip broke and, obviously, unable to play poker for income. I had a lot of plans for the time between August '09 and August '10 and the most important ones relied upon my ability to make $1k+ a month playing poker. I wanted to get a place with my girlfriend in Buffalo for the summer and following academic year, but if I come out of the Spring 2010 semester broke, I'm not sure that I could. I was expecting to be able to pay for this study abroad trip 100% with poker winnings and scholarships, but I've had to ask my parents for a few thousand dollars to help me.

I think it's worth mentioning that I'm still four figures in the black regarding poker. I'm not in debt except for student loans. I spent a decent chunk of my poker winnings on myself (video games, HDTV, etc) while I was winning, but now I've really buckled down. It sucks that I didn't have to worry about spending money for a good few months and now I'm worried about spending $10.

I don't have a specific question for the 2p2 community. I'm just asking for general advice. Right now I don't think poker is what I want to do, even recreationally. Like the title of the thread says, I think I've lost my gamble. I also simply don't care about being a better poker player than other people anymore. I feel like I have the knowledge and skills to crush stud and I at least used to be able to win at NLHE, but that's just not what I'm interested in spending my time doing anymore.

But the decisions I make now will affect my ability to play in the future and I may regret not being able to make money by playing.

tl;dr:
-Kid who was considering dropping out of college for poker is glad he didn't, because he's had a chronic case of the runbads since August.
-Doesn't like poker anymore. Too pessimistic to gamble at all.
-Was taking shots at NL200 and is now trying (unsuccessfully) to rebuild at NL10 after withdrawing most of his bankroll because even 3-digit swings were affecting him emotionally.
-Still has money, but a study abroad trip might force him to spend all of what he has.
10-13-2009 , 03:18 PM
DevWil in teh house
10-13-2009 , 03:20 PM
kinda why I suggested you finish school
10-13-2009 , 03:21 PM
I didn't read an y of that stuff yet, but I think ChicagoJoey had similar problems you should PM him for advice
10-13-2009 , 03:31 PM
You mention gambling and taking shots. Sounds like you are a gambler, and not a grinder. I've never even HAD gamble... thats one reason why I believe I'm successful at poker.

Blackjack is gambling. I don't play blackjack.
10-13-2009 , 03:37 PM
how many hands a day were u playing? how many tables? did u have rakeback?
10-13-2009 , 03:59 PM
being up in poker is a feat in itself. when it's the only thing you do there is a whole new kind of pressure
stop looking at slansky bucks or ev in hem
10-13-2009 , 04:02 PM
It sounds like you're burnt out and having a hard time looking at your play objectively. When a bad run begins to affect your emotions and lively hood it is very likely it is also affecting your play.

Betting when you should be checking, calling large raises light, etc..., these holes add up and can easily make you a losing player and it's more likely to happen when you have a negative mindset

This might be hard to swallow but there is a very real possibility that you were never a long term winning player to begin with. People get hot for months/quarters at a time. You might have been riding the upper track of variance and now you profits are in line with your play.

Either way, Take some time off, maybe a few months and see if your hunger comes back. Good luck.
10-13-2009 , 04:07 PM
what's your s/n on stars?
10-13-2009 , 04:33 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by GoAheadPutMeOnAK
You mention gambling and taking shots. Sounds like you are a gambler, and not a grinder. I've never even HAD gamble... thats one reason why I believe I'm successful at poker.

Blackjack is gambling. I don't play blackjack.
poker is gambling. get over yourself.

i was grinding. i wasn't playing for fun.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jah Onion
how many hands a day were u playing? how many tables? did u have rakeback?
played on stars. played 2k-6k hands a day 4-6 days a week. i CAN handle 24 tables but usually i was comfortable between 18 and 20. was on pace to get supernova by the end of the year. definitely can't now.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ChipMagnet
It sounds like you're burnt out and having a hard time looking at your play objectively. When a bad run begins to affect your emotions and lively hood it is very likely it is also affecting your play.

Betting when you should be checking, calling large raises light, etc..., these holes add up and can easily make you a losing player and it's more likely to happen when you have a negative mindset

This might be hard to swallow but there is a very real possibility that you were never a long term winning player to begin with. People get hot for months/quarters at a time. You might have been riding the upper track of variance and now you profits are in line with your play.

Either way, Take some time off, maybe a few months and see if your hunger comes back. Good luck.
i may have lost my edge, but i definitely had one at one point. that's what's so troubling about all of this, i think i was a very good player at one point. maybe i got too ambitious and i'm caught in some bad habits. i dunno.

i do agree that i'm too shell-shocked to judge my current play. i also know that there's no emotional influence in being able to tell that i'm far below EV during this downswing. losing 150bbs getting all in with the best of it isn't a mistake, imo.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ehafner
what's your s/n on stars?
could any good come of telling you?
10-13-2009 , 05:04 PM
looks like you're not that good. probably should quit
10-13-2009 , 05:06 PM
vini the prophet
10-13-2009 , 05:13 PM
My advice to you changes completely based on how good I think you are at NLHE.
10-13-2009 , 05:22 PM
I remember some of the HHs you posted back in May..... they were weak sauce. You're not ready for 200NL and likely not ready for 100NL. Finish school and work on building a solid game while over-rolling yourself for SSNL.
10-13-2009 , 05:34 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by brocksavage1
I remember some of the HHs you posted back in May..... they were weak sauce. You're not ready for 200NL and likely not ready for 100NL. Finish school and work on building a solid game while over-rolling yourself for SSNL.
key. i wasn't playing NL100 in may. i didn't stop learning after april.

for what it's worth, all of the cash hold 'em hands on my desktop:

10-13-2009 , 05:38 PM
^^^ probably still not ready for 200NL imho.
10-13-2009 , 05:41 PM
you're being way more of an ass than necessary, imo.
10-13-2009 , 05:45 PM
play 10nl?
10-13-2009 , 05:50 PM
dont quit poker, but dont play it as a main income either. Poker is a great hobby, especially when the money is trivial.

My point is:
Get a normal job
Study hard at school
Play poker when your bored or wanna take a break from studying.


Maybe, maybe after you've finished school and you've fixed all your leaks and can beat 200NL fairly easily, then you can play poker full time with a degree as backup.
If you haven't fixed your leaks by that time, then finish grad school and get a 80k-100k/year job after.
10-13-2009 , 05:50 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DevWil
you're being way more of an ass than necessary, imo.
That's how I roll.
10-13-2009 , 06:01 PM
You should just finish school and play poker on the side for now. Play overolled. I went through a similar experience after I crushed 50NL for 4 months straight and I continued to beat 100NL until a big downswing happened that I did not see coming. Turns out I was way too overconfident and wasn't as good as I thought. I thankfully was overolled for 100NL and I did not go busto. Brought myself back up and am now starting to figure out 200NL. Done school and April and I am giving pro a shot.

http://www.pokertableratings.com/sta...rch/royman0785

$7k swing I had, could be a lot worse for you.
10-13-2009 , 06:12 PM
surprise!!!!!
making thousands of dollars a month playing poker is not easy! who would have thought!?
10-13-2009 , 06:13 PM
I have been playing online for Six years. Out of those 72 months I have had Six great months and Two awful months.

Every other month has been within an acceptable statistical range.

I am possibly the worst 100NL player on Stars/888/Party who makes a profit each year.

The point is, no matter how bad you run or how big your swings, if you lose long term and are not enjoying it, quit.

You are ahead overall so either suck up the variance or take up WoW or something similar.

Finishing School is more important than anything. I see no point to dropping out to 24 table 100-400NL. The most the best of them make is the average post grad salary. If motivated, they could quite easily work for 80k a year and grind 15 hours a week on top.
10-13-2009 , 06:16 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DevWil
you're being way more of an ass than necessary, imo.
can also apply here.

Quote:
Originally Posted by DevWil
poker is gambling. get over yourself.
Wil, you have really cemented my opinion of you as a person. In the first thread you were also argumentative.

Now I am certain you are a comic genius. The ulitmate leveler. I tip my hat...
10-13-2009 , 06:30 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DevWil
key. i wasn't playing NL100 in may. i didn't stop learning after april.

for what it's worth, all of the cash hold 'em hands on my desktop:

and bc of this graph u want to go pro???

LOL...

finish studies and play 500k to 1mio hands NL100 and see if u beat it... if u do u can think about making the step...

and if u don't like Poker and only playing for the mula u won't last long

      
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