Villain is gdfhaffer, a good but loose reg.

Thoughts?

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

MP2: $109.75
Hero (CO): $100.00
BTN: $150.20
SB: $100.00
BB: $99.50
UTG: $101.50
UTG+1: $204.50
MP1: $74.90

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is CO with J J
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $3.50, 2 folds, Hero calls $3.50, 3 folds

Flop: ($8.50) K K Q (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($8.50) 5 (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero checks

River: ($8.50) J (2 players)
UTG+1 bets $6, Hero raises to $24, UTG+1 requests TIME, UTG+1 raises to $201 all in, Hero requests TIME, Hero folds

without any history the only hands that make any sense would be AsTs,Ts9s, and a weird spazz. It would be helpful to know his cbet percentage and any sort of dynamic you guys have. If he knows he has a loose image I can't imagine him slowplaying in this spot with a larger boat trying to get you to valuecut yourself. I dont believe he shoves any flush here on a paired board where your hand really looks like jj (but I don't have any idea about your own image...ie you try to steal pots).

We had just played about 10 hands but he was running like 30/30.

it would be nice to know some relative stats such as AF and cbet% as this is very much a player/read dependent call or fold because his line only makes sense for 2 combinations of hands.

Like I said, 10 hands...

this is KK or QQ every single time isn't it?

not that i could fold..

What hands are we hoping to get paid off by with our river raise? Board is scary, it's unlikely he wants to call with a Q which he'd have likely bet the flop with. It's even less likely for him to have AK played this way. 5's full bets the turn. And any other mid pairs would probably not bet river into this board and certainly aren't calling a raise. That basically leaves the flushes that don't make straight flushes, which again will be rather scared of your river raise. I think you're basically hoping he has A9s, that's about the only hand that crying calls your raise.

It's nitty, but this wouldn't be the worst river flat in history.

If 30/30 is an accurate pre-flop description... then this villain has a ton of ace-rag of spades and suited connectors in spades within his range.

Players who are playing that many hands for a raise preflop tend to play their draws aggressively - so, absent of knowing his po-flop aggression, I'd tend to think he double barrels the FD into us.

It's when these guys *don't* fire at a flop that we should be cautious.

But, absent of knowing how this villain behaves po-flop, or specifically how he behaves with draws -- then I don't think I can find a fold. Particularly if you only have a dozen or so hands on him.

Uhhhh, flatting the river is pretty bad, but I wouldn't make the raise so big - I might even CiB.

He has KK/KQ/QQ here; he does not have ATs/T9s. OP, it's a painful fold.

+1

I'll say when most players at this level don't fire a c-bet on a KKQ flop, we should start to be suspicious of tarps. I still raise the river though.