Originally Posted by Cry Me A River
I've been meaning to try and put together a post/thread on this subject for the FAQ for ages. Please feel free to comment, elaborate, etc.
Posts about folding KK preflop or a set are often met with derision and contempt. This is because the standard answer, the default play, is to not fold.
The only way this changes is with information that is often absent from these types of posts - A read on villain. Without that read, the question becomes unanswerable and we are just left with the default answer.
Do not fold.
And keep in mind that folding in these situations is often so difficult that a read on villain may not even be enough. We may well require some idea of how villain sees us. For example, does villain see us as a nit who would only 3bet KK? If so, then his 4bet range is that much more narrow. OTOH, does villain see us as a LAG so he may be taking a stand with a much wider range?
If you make such a post without this kind of information, do not expect to be met with kindness. And if you do include this information, then answer is generally obvious. So all you're really doing is posting for confirmation and reassurance that you made the right play, not advice. In which case you're just as likely to be called out for your self-indulgence. That, or you're posting a bad beat or cooler. Which no one appreciates. We've all been there. Many, many times.
So avoid making these kinds of posts unless you're really confused, you're prepared for a possibly unfavorable reaction and you're able to provide more than just a hand history.
In order to make folding KK preflop correct, you must put villain on exactly AA to a VERY high degree of certainly. Depending upon the amount of money already in the pot and remaining stack sizes this read may need to be a virtual certainty. Remember, even if he does have exactly AA you still have close to 20% equity in the hand. So if the pot is already big and he just might have AK or QQ sometimes it gets a lot harder to say fold.
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 57.191% 54.62% 02.57% 19640560 924261.00 { KcKd }
Hand 1: 42.809% 40.24% 02.57% 14469302 924261.00 { QQ+, AKs, AKo }
So it comes down to, does he only have AA? The answer is usually, "No he has JJ/QQ/AK/78S sometimes" but use your judgement. You're the one sitting at the table with him, you're the one who knows the table texture, you're the one who knows how aggressively you've been playing. It's unlikely anyone else is going to have a better grasp of the situation. Make you read and go with it.
There are three recurring situations which justify considering folding a set. Once again, they depend on reads.
First and most common is against a likely straight or flush. This is a judgement call based on how likely villain is to have it (ie: board texture, if he chases, if he's passive and never bets without a monster, etc), versus pot odds and our remaining equity in the hand (our chance to boat up if we're not on the river yet) versus implied odds (again if we're not on the river and if villain is likely to stack off if we fill up) versus reverse implied odds if we want to try for pot control and get to showdown cheaply if we don't improve (ie: whether we have to call one bet, two or three to see showdown) or if we decide to just felt it (ie: on a coordinated flop).
Second is if we're set mining, hit a small set and another likely set miner springs to life. For example, UTG raises PF, we call MP with 33, another set miner calls behind us. Flop is T53 rainbow. UTG bets, we raise and the other set miner behind us raises again. Can we fold here?
Once more, the most important piece of information here is our read. Is this raise likely to be anything other than a bigger set? If the raiser is a nitty set miner than this is very likely a set given the flop texture - There's not much in the way of draws or 2pair hands available. On the other hand, if the flop was T93 with two spades and villain is LAG, there are a bunch of draws out there as well as T9. Or he may just love his AT. So we're much more likely to have the best hand.
The third situation is also when we flop a small set but in a limped pot where a TAG or nitty player makes it clear they want to play for stacks. Since these types of players seldom want to play big pots in limped hands with anything less than 2pair this is where we may want to be cautious and slow things down. Again though, this comes down to a mix of reads and flop texture. How many hands are we beating based on flop texture and how good is our read on villain? Could he play an overpair like this?
Deciding to make these big folds should not be common and they should require more than just an uncommented hand history. There are no absolutes in poker and there will be times when folding or calling are not clear. However, keep in mind that most of these situations are actually common, trivial and people get tired of hearing about them. So if you do post such a hand, you may not get the kind of response you're hoping for. Don't be surprised by a negative reaction.
