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Old 12-07-2008, 02:18 AM   #1
SABR42
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400 NL, I river two pair. Fold anyway?

Villain is like 19/5/2. On the passive side obviously but doesn't seem out of line.

Poker Stars $2/$4 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

MP1: $406.00
Hero (MP2): $470.20
CO: $417.25
BTN: $305.00
SB: $396.00
BB: $510.30
UTG: $352.00
UTG+1: $683.00

Pre Flop: ($6.00) Hero is MP2 with 9 A
3 folds, Hero raises to $16, 1 fold, BTN calls $16, 2 folds

Flop: ($38.00) J 6 T (2 players)
Hero bets $24, BTN calls $24

Turn: ($86.00) A (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $72, Hero calls $72

River: ($230.00) 9 (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $112

I'm probably the biggest calling station in the world but I think this is a fold?

KQ is obv in his range, as is AJ, AT, and I can't rule out a set either.

I don't think he'd value bet AK/AQ/JT this hard or turn something like QQ into a bluff, so I only beat something like 98 or small hearts that decided to double barrel.
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Old 12-07-2008, 09:50 AM   #2
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Re: 400 NL, I river two pair. Fold anyway?

Hmm, I think I bet the turn here. As for the river, thats a pretty small vbet. Wouldn't he bet a lot more if he had a set or a str8? I don't think a 19/5 folds ak on this flop so I do think thats in his range on the river. I dunno, I think I'm too much of a station to fold this but it's close.

Last edited by RosaParks; 12-07-2008 at 10:00 AM.
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Old 12-07-2008, 10:09 AM   #3
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Re: 400 NL, I river two pair. Fold anyway?

I bet the turn here. You are barreling this turn when you miss the flop and cbet why would you check it now. I think I call the river as played. I would think he v bet a little more with a-j and k-q on the river.
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Old 12-07-2008, 11:42 AM   #4
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Re: 400 NL, I river two pair. Fold anyway?

This is probably a "close one" that isn't really that close and is a fold. I think your analysis is correct, SABR. That said, I usually make this call and regret it. BTW, I don't think his bet size would be at all unusual for a very good hand.

I absolutely agree the turn is a bet, rather than going into check/guess mode oop with a marginal hand.
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Old 12-07-2008, 02:36 PM   #5
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Re: 400 NL, I river two pair. Fold anyway?

Betting this turn is just bad imo.
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Old 12-07-2008, 03:15 PM   #6
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Re: 400 NL, I river two pair. Fold anyway?

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Originally Posted by SABR42 View Post
Betting this turn is just bad imo.
Better than c/c imo
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Old 12-07-2008, 03:26 PM   #7
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Re: 400 NL, I river two pair. Fold anyway?

I think c/c turn is optimal.
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Old 12-07-2008, 03:45 PM   #8
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Re: 400 NL, I river two pair. Fold anyway?

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Originally Posted by Stonewalled View Post
This is probably a "close one" that isn't really that close and is a fold. I think your analysis is correct, SABR. That said, I usually make this call and regret it. BTW, I don't think his bet size would be at all unusual for a very good hand.

I absolutely agree the turn is a bet, rather than going into check/guess mode oop with a marginal hand.
this
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Old 12-07-2008, 03:46 PM   #9
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Re: 400 NL, I river two pair. Fold anyway?

but i dont bet turn
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Old 12-07-2008, 03:47 PM   #10
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Re: 400 NL, I river two pair. Fold anyway?

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Originally Posted by SABR42 View Post
I think c/c turn is optimal.
why is ck/c better?
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Old 12-07-2008, 04:30 PM   #11
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Re: 400 NL, I river two pair. Fold anyway?

yeah c/c is the correct turn play

call as played and don't feel bad about it
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Old 12-07-2008, 04:36 PM   #12
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Re: 400 NL, I river two pair. Fold anyway?

I just don't see the point in betting the turn. Are we betting for value? Hands that call/raise our turn bet are mostly beating A9, and we certainly don't want to get raised.

Checking always keeps us in the hand (as long as he doesn't overbet shove or something) and has a chance to induce a bluff from a worse hand. We have the nut draw and decent showdown value but are almost always behind if we get all-in on the turn.

I'd be more likely to bet a small flush draw that doesn't have much showdown value and has a chance to make a better hand fold.
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Old 12-07-2008, 04:46 PM   #13
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Re: 400 NL, I river two pair. Fold anyway?

If you are checking with the intention of trying to hit your draw on the turn if you get the right price, and folding to a river bet if you don't, then I don't have a problem with c/c the turn.

But, I have a problem with the part of your reasoning having to do with inducing a bet from a hand you beat. In this spot, oop with a marginal hand on the turn, the benefit of inducing a bet from a hand you beat is generally not worth the risk of having to guess where you're at on the river, which is what I meant by check/guess mode. In this kind of situation, generally the better play is to bet/fold. It avoids you getting into spots where you're widening your margin for error when you are playing for stacks, i.e., c/c turn and checking river causes you to play for stacks with no idea where you're at. (This is assuming you don't have a solid read on your opponent.)

Here, I would rather semi-bluff than c/c the turn intending to give up on the river if I miss.
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Old 12-07-2008, 04:48 PM   #14
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Re: 400 NL, I river two pair. Fold anyway?

Quote:
Originally Posted by speedle View Post
yeah c/c is the correct turn play

call as played and don't feel bad about it
Playing turn/river this way as a habit is suicidal imo speedle.
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Old 12-07-2008, 04:51 PM   #15
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Re: 400 NL, I river two pair. Fold anyway?

I don't exactly shy away from spots where I am OOP with a marginal hand if I think it is a higher EV play than turning top pair + nfd into a bluff.
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Old 12-07-2008, 04:51 PM   #16
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Re: 400 NL, I river two pair. Fold anyway?

the guy has AQ/AK here like 80% of the time, why would it be suicidal?
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Old 12-07-2008, 04:56 PM   #17
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Re: 400 NL, I river two pair. Fold anyway?

Our hand has way too much value to treat as a pure bluff, which is what you are suggesting.

In general bet/folding hands like this just to avoid river decisions is a good way to burn money imo.
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Old 12-07-2008, 05:09 PM   #18
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Re: 400 NL, I river two pair. Fold anyway?

i read the hand history wrong didn't see that you had a draw as well. Gotta ck/c that turn imo.
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Old 12-07-2008, 05:46 PM   #19
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Re: 400 NL, I river two pair. Fold anyway?

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Originally Posted by speedle View Post
the guy has AQ/AK here like 80% of the time, why would it be suicidal?
Sorry, speedle, in the midst of talking about the turn play, I forgot Hero rivered 2-pair. I was thinking you were saying c/c the turn and river with TPMK, which would be suicidal as a habit imo. I still believe river is a fold, though.
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Old 12-07-2008, 05:54 PM   #20
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Re: 400 NL, I river two pair. Fold anyway?

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Originally Posted by SABR42 View Post
I don't exactly shy away from spots where I am OOP with a marginal hand if I think it is a higher EV play than turning top pair + nfd into a bluff.
Nor should you. We're just disagreeing about which is the higher EV play.
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Old 12-07-2008, 05:57 PM   #21
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Re: 400 NL, I river two pair. Fold anyway?

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Originally Posted by SABR42 View Post
Our hand has way too much value to treat as a pure bluff, which is what you are suggesting.

In general bet/folding hands like this just to avoid river decisions is a good way to burn money imo.
Not at all suggesting you treat it as a pure bluff. I think you're ahead on the turn fairly often, and get calls from hands that will then check behind on the river.

And we're not bet/folding turn just to avoid river decisions. Other reasons are b/c we're ahead often and we stop villain from bluffing us off the best hand as often. But, "avoiding river decision," if you mean by that that we avoid the -EV situation of having to play for stacks with a marginal hand when we don't know where our opponent is, well I think that's a pretty persuasive reason.
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Old 12-07-2008, 07:19 PM   #22
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Re: 400 NL, I river two pair. Fold anyway?

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Originally Posted by SABR42 View Post
Our hand has way too much value to treat as a pure bluff, which is what you are suggesting.

In general bet/folding hands like this just to avoid river decisions is a good way to burn money imo.
I do agree with this.

River is one of those ones where you really gotta consider your opponent. He is ****ing passive and definitely capable of flatting preflop with all the hands that beat you. I could MAYBE see AK and JT is most definitely in his range IMO. That said, I think we're good ~15-20% of the time on the river making it a fold IMO.
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Old 12-07-2008, 11:12 PM   #23
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Re: 400 NL, I river two pair. Fold anyway?

why do we think he's floatin with AK/AQ often, the low AF means he's calling a lot?
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Old 12-08-2008, 01:45 AM   #24
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Re: 400 NL, I river two pair. Fold anyway?

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why do we think he's floatin with AK/AQ often, the low AF means he's calling a lot?
Thats just what 19/5's do. They're bad.
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Old 12-08-2008, 03:05 AM   #25
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Re: 400 NL, I river two pair. Fold anyway?

i generally try to shy away from spots where i let my opponent play optimally

edit: supporting sabr

two questions

1) if i bet here, will he fold worse?
2) if i bet here, will he call/raise better?

if the answer to both of these questions is yes, maybe betting really isn't such a good idea

Last edited by KeanuReaver; 12-08-2008 at 03:18 AM.
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