Villain is 14/9 over small sample, but on a few tables.
Thoughts on everything. It's been so long since my AK got raised on the flop when I hit.


Party Poker $200.00 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

BTN: $214.60
SB: $89.55
BB: $41.00
UTG: $203.05
UTG+1: $196.05
Hero (MP1): $200.00
MP2: $237.10
CO: $94.25

Pre Flop: ($3.00) Hero is MP1 with A K
2 folds, Hero raises to $8, MP2 calls $8, 4 folds

Flop: ($19.00) A J 8 (2 players)
Hero bets $15.00, MP2 raises to $30, Hero calls $15

Turn: ($79.00) 4 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets $32.00, Hero calls $32

River: ($143.00) K (2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets $167.10, Hero thinks "man I shoulda seen that coming".

Well, being out of position against a tight-solid (14/9) player stinks. The stack-to-pot ratio is around 10 so we should not be committed to going all in with TPTK. Therefore I'd say we should check the flop.

As played, do you any aggression stats? Would he raise the flop with a flush draw?

The turn bet looks weak, but he could also have just 1 pair. The river push looks like you may be facing AK here. I think a set would bet more on the turn so the river push is not so much.

Not really sure but I think I usually check the flop so the pot doesn't get so big.

-Tom

Try sometimes check-calling flop against tight opponents that wont go broke with a weaker ace. Several good things might happen: villain can spaz out with any two when he smells weakness + you can keep the pot size under relative control + you are less likely to get blown off the best hand + you might squeeze some value out of a weaker hand on a later street. Also since you have the K you are not really worried about any turn cards.

As played his flop raise + turn bet look pretty weak. He could be milking you, but once you get to the river with top two I think you have to call. Always a tough spot this.

hmmm this is a tricky spot a 14/9 will usually 3 bet AKo from mp2 and lets face it his flop raise 2x screams SET then a weak turn bet and then a strong bet on the river

its a fold imo

I shove turn probably.

I feel like, having just started playing a little 200nl, I'm giving some regs credit for a little too much thought. Part of me thinks he set this up perfectly for a river shove. But would he do this with a very strong hand at the risk of giving me a great price to draw?

I almost think he has some random pocket pair that went for the "you don't have an ace" min raise on the flop. I almost want to put him on 44. Wouldn't be the first time a reg owned me like that. I folded like a bitch cause it was 200 and not 100 and at the end of a sesh, I hate putting a damper on a good day. Obv not great reasons to fold but w/e.

Interesting, but what other hands do you take this line with?
I'm seeing new things at 200nl that I'm not really too used to (ie: if something comes up that I don't want to deal with at 100nl, I can just fold cause it happens like once a day, but once it's too frequent, I have to figure out how to deal with it) and I'm not quite sure how to respond with monsters or marginal hands ... or draws for that matter.

What do people do here with like KQcc, a set or like AQ?

Also in retrospect I really feel like this was a chop. wtf at flatting AK.

to me this looks like a set or AJ. AK is also possible.

I dun think this could be AJ, he would not push it in with that K river. I think villain is well aware of what hero has, I think that allin bet on the river showed it. He is shoving (prolly) his set because he puts villain on AK. He def. would have made a valuebet(smaller bet), if he thinks that Hero was weaker here.

Taken ur line I would have rr the flop(weird min raise from a reg.) and if he pushed I would fold. If he cc that one I was prolly done too. Checking turn and fold with pain to a bet. If he checked behind I would def. call a reasonable bet on river, can't raise river since I suspected him to have a set on flop. I need to be sure of what he just did is the thing that he was representing, so next time I can have a better read on his actions.

I just had a hand like that, I called allin bet on river vs a reg. with top2. After analyzing the hand I found out that villain played it perfectly, by putting me on that range he thought I would be or else I was never able to call his allin bet.

Yea I think if this river blanked I would have given him another 60 on the river but when the K came he figured I couldn't fold. I had a similar hand at 100nl yesterday where I bet/called an A high flop and we checked the turn and an A hit the river and he shoved but he was kinda crazy like 22/18 or something small sample so I snapped figuring chop at worst but he had a flopped set. In retrospect he was prob just a laggy reg who knew exactly what I had and I'm starting to like my fold here more and more. I dunno I don't feel like I'm being abused too often in pots like this yet but maybe I can expect a lot of hands like this in the future? not sure.

QT of clubs? Would make sense why he overshoves river. I don't see regs min raise draw heavy boards often, they usually put in a firm 3 bet with a set.

Yea I thought about the combo draw, as his minraise could get me to make a small 3bet as a bluff or like with AK and then he can shove rather than call off his stack. However, I don't think he'd follow it up with a weird turn bet like that on a board where I clearly have a decent hand often. I think he'd either check or bet bigger. I really think, though, that he was thinking more about stack size management than pot to bet ratios. I am guilty of this sometimes too - trying to leave a pot-sized shove either from me or as a 3rd barrel (like he did) Idk I suck at poker.
Also - Dear regs - can you just fold 27o etc from the bb instead of forcing everyone into a variance fest? Kthx.

As played, you probably have to call at the river since most of his likely draws missed, then you induced a bluff from all of those missed draws with a river check when you pick up two pair.

But I think you only beat a bluff. Any real hand that he overbets probably beats you.

not really seeing what you can beat here...Would have played it faster on earlier streets but as played I am probably folding river. I don't think he plays a combo draw with this line, seems semi-insane to try to induce calls with small bets holding a combo draw on early streets and then overshove river.

First:yes he's a 14/9,but he mini-raised flop.I usually don't give credits to be good to people who mini-raise flop with flush draws/straight draws.That said...
I bet a little more on the flop.
After getting mini-raised,i guess that u can either bet/fold turn or CRAI as SABR42 suggested.

Note that if you bet turn and get raised your always behind here.

Soul read?QT.

Probably a leak but I don't think I can find a fold on this river. At least not in the moment anyway.