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100NL: river plan?

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03-12-2010 , 04:48 PM

waffe23

old hand

Join Date: Nov 2008 Posts: 1,881

villain is 14/7 over 198

Comment on what you do on river, and turn sizing please.

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

UTG: $67.00
UTG+1: $114.95
MP1: $100.00
MP2: $100.00
Hero (CO): $126.75
BTN: $187.65
SB: $93.50
BB: $158.20

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is CO with 5

1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $3.50, 2 folds, Hero calls $3.50, 1 fold, SB calls $3, BB calls $2.50

Flop: ($14.00) 8

(4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $10, SB folds, BB calls $10, UTG+1 folds

Turn: ($34.00) K

(2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $32, BB calls $32

River: ($98.00) J

(2 players)
BB checks, Hero?

03-12-2010 , 04:54 PM

bullyjohnson

newbie

Join Date: Mar 2010 Posts: 31

Quote:

Originally Posted by waffe23

1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $3.50, 2 folds, Hero calls $3.50, 1 fold, SB calls $3, BB calls $2.50

Flop: ($14.00) 8

(4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $10, SB folds, BB calls $10, UTG+1 folds

Turn: ($34.00) K

(2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $32, BB calls $32

River: ($98.00) J

(2 players)
BB checks, Hero?

push the river for value. as played the only hands that make sense for villain to to have are ak or aq with the ace of hearts. a horribly played kk is a possibility but you have to think you are ahead here. if you think he might fold to a push bet smaller for value, but regardless of what you do make sure to bet.

03-12-2010 , 05:04 PM

waffe23

old hand

Join Date: Nov 2008 Posts: 1,881

Isn't AK usually 3betting? I doubt we get called by much here that we beat if we shove.

03-12-2010 , 07:00 PM

CallMeLucid

old hand

Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 1,828

he could have kq or something like that. i would ship here and not be worried bout a flush

03-12-2010 , 07:15 PM

LearningCurve

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 4,247

Hmmm, from a 14/7 I think we will see a scared (but not folding) 88 here a lot. I'm not really sure that anything worse calls a river shove.

03-12-2010 , 07:25 PM

AllTheCheese

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 11,898

Especially with your PSB on the turn, your hand is overrepped. From his perspective, what hands are you shoving the river with that are worse than two-pair?

03-12-2010 , 07:48 PM

WantToLearn

veteran

Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 3,082

I´m not sure about the river.
I like the pot sized turn bet though. The villain is the BB, and I see them call lighter preflop as it´s cheaper. Not necessarily saying they should. But there´s a lot of Kh hands who now have top pair, sometimes two pair, plus a big draw.

03-12-2010 , 07:52 PM

ohudac

banned

Join Date: Aug 2009 Posts: 1,168

I bet 39.99

03-12-2010 , 07:58 PM

waffe23

old hand

Join Date: Nov 2008 Posts: 1,881

Quote:

Originally Posted by AllTheCheese

Especially with your PSB on the turn, your hand is overrepped. From his perspective, what hands are you shoving the river with that are worse than two-pair?

None. Do you not like PSB on turn? Wondered about sizing. I like check on river given turn sizing, given that betting pretty much commits us.

03-12-2010 , 09:33 PM

#10

MaliceUW

banned

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 5,490

bet...

03-13-2010 , 01:11 AM

#11

booger369

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Apr 2008 Posts: 4,542

kq is like the only hand calling that we beat if we push and i think if he has kq it has to be kqs. thats very lil hands...

and turn i would go 2/3ish again like 24

03-13-2010 , 01:12 AM

#12

Doctor Poker

banned

Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 525

What's his AF?

As played, shove for value. You just might get called by KQ/QJ/KhJ or even AhK/AhQ (depends on how he percieves you). He wouldn't (or at least shouldn't) play a better set like this, hands like AT/T9 for a rivered straight would fold OTF (AhT is a long shot) and unless he flopped a flush and is planning to brutally rape you, you've got him.

03-13-2010 , 03:58 AM

#13

Effen

CRAB

Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 24,004

$36

03-13-2010 , 08:27 PM

#14

waffe23

old hand

Join Date: Nov 2008 Posts: 1,881

Quote:

Originally Posted by booger369

kq is like the only hand calling that we beat if we push and i think if he has kq it has to be kqs. thats very lil hands...

and turn i would go 2/3ish again like 24

Why 2/3. I'm looking for reasons on sizing for turn.

03-13-2010 , 08:29 PM

#15

waffe23

old hand

Join Date: Nov 2008 Posts: 1,881

And is it common to call 3barrels @100NL with a pair or something? WTF at all these bet comments.

03-13-2010 , 10:13 PM

#16

PokerRon247

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 11,192

Only hand I see us getting value from on the river is KQs. Is that not kinda thin?

03-13-2010 , 11:56 PM

#17

OoLethaLoO

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Apr 2009 Posts: 6,851

a smallish bet commits you anyway and given the size of the pot and the fact that it will be totally obvious that you have committed yourself, it may actually look stronger than shoving. If you think it is too thin then just check back, if you think he calls with 2 pair hands then shove. Idk it seems pretty thin to me but you do have the best hand most of the time..

03-14-2010 , 01:14 AM

#18

waffe23

old hand

Join Date: Nov 2008 Posts: 1,881

No I agree too thin. Actually i should be more clear here. Does anybody like betting turn smaller and then value betting river (b/f), or do you like betting turn bigger and then checking back?

03-14-2010 , 01:30 AM

#19

PokerRon247

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 11,192

He can have draws on the turn so I prefer to bet bigger on turn and check back river than bet small on both streets.

03-14-2010 , 01:58 AM

#20

waffe23

old hand

Join Date: Nov 2008 Posts: 1,881

yeah that's what i thought. just wondered if anybody has any arguments against that

03-14-2010 , 03:00 AM

#21

jedinemesis

grinder

Join Date: Aug 2005 Posts: 465

Quote:

Originally Posted by Doctor Poker

...unless he flopped a flush...

This

I'm not saying he actually has it here, but there hasn't been much discussion about the chances he has it. Why can't he have Axhh or KThh (or similar)? He had monsterous pot odds pre, so he could have called with any two suited cards, although he probably raises anything lower than the K. If he flopped a strong flush and you double barreled, he might be content to just check the river, hoping you follow through with your set/worse flush/two pair, etc.

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