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10-13-2008 , 10:10 AM

sk_limx

grinder

Join Date: Sep 2007 Posts: 635

Villain is 9.8/7.3/3.5 over 2800 hands

Poker Stars $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

BTN: $98.00
SB: $89.00
BB: $63.70
UTG: $19.50
UTG+1: $103.70
UTG+2: $172.35
MP1: $111.05
MP2: $96.50
Hero (CO): $116.30

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is CO with 3

1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $2, 3 folds, Hero calls $2, 3 folds

Flop: ($5.50) 8

(2 players)
UTG+1 bets $3, Hero raises to $12, UTG+1 calls $9

Turn: ($29.50) J

(2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $30, UTG+1 calls $30

River: ($89.50) 6

(2 players)
UTG+1 bets $34, Hero ?

10-13-2008 , 10:35 AM

Gabethebabe

Malware Jedi

Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 27,581

Shove. Only 27$ more. I would have called a shove and I don´t want villain to get out for less than his stack.

If he was on a flush draw and made it - good for him. His turn call is still -EV if you pay him off every time he hits his flush.

Turn call:
35/44 * -$30 = -$23.86
7/44 * +$118.45 = +$18.84
2/44 * -$89.20 = -$4.05

Total EV = -$9.07

(hope I calculated correctly)

Last edited by Gabethebabe; 10-13-2008 at 10:42 AM.

10-13-2008 , 11:00 AM

riverfish1

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 12,042

I don't think a 9.8/7.3/3.5 is calling a psb on the turn on just a flush draw, he's getting it in. Same thing goes for a set imo. I think he shows up with AK a lot of the time here.

Except for that UTG preflop minraise. That almost always seems to be a donk playing a mid pocket pair. So he could have 88. Meh, you've already got most of it in and AK could play that way, so I guess just ship the rest of it.

10-13-2008 , 11:17 AM

sk_limx

grinder

Join Date: Sep 2007 Posts: 635

I think he knew there was no folding equity on reraising me on turn.

River bet looked alot like a value bet to me. What do you think?

10-13-2008 , 11:42 AM

KITT 007

adept

Join Date: Apr 2007 Posts: 715

Shove, I really like your nice big bet on the turn.

10-13-2008 , 11:51 AM

AllTheCheese

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 11,898

I don't think I would shove. I really doubt this is a blocking bet when he leaves only $25 behind. He's v-towning imo.

10-13-2008 , 03:08 PM

321FoldIt

adept

Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 992

I don't think I'd give him credit for blocking bet with AK and if he rivered his flush then good for him. I'm just going to get it in here and berrate his turn call.

10-13-2008 , 03:39 PM

il_martilo

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 4,137

I push. As long as he pays off with non-flush hands 51% of the time or more, then raising is better than calling. Plus he is so nitty that I don't think he check/calls a PSB on the turn with only a flush draw. So I think this is flush ~20-25% of the time and AA,AK, etc about 80%.

Raise >> Call >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> > Fold.

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