Lots of noise in there this week... bad arguments refuted by equally bad arguments. I'd really like to see ship do a complete driver vs 2-iron analysis

Tiger -4, guy actually has a legit chance in the Masters, honestly this could go down as the greatest comeback of all time. Few months ago he sounded defeated and was just talking about hoping to still be able to play with his kids. Amazing.

Ignoring the actual hole and pin position I get average proximity of 29 feet when he uses driver and about 33 feet with 2 iron.

The big issue is the pin position as it is really easy to spin the ball back off green. Not sure how much it would add to proximity when using driver.

Fairly close.

no idea what your methodology is, but if that's accurate, i'd assume the 29 feet with driver has far more variance too, and would yield far more birdies

(if that's not evident, imagine being inside 10 feet 50% of the time, outside 48 feet with little chance 50% of the time vs putting from 33 feet 100% of the time)

Basically I assumed driver will hit fairway 55% and 2 iron 75!% then used those assumptions to plug in his proximity from 125-150 from fairway and from rough. Then 175-200 fairway and rough. (Used his 2013 stats since we don't have a sample size that means anything this year)

I think you have a good point about going for more variance that leads to more birdies even if that causes a few more bogeys

Can you guys help settle an argument, what is a fair line on:

Most majors between now and 31 December 2022 (20 to play for)

Tiger v Rory .... ?

What side do you like if we say next 2 years only?

A healthy Tiger is a favorite for 2 years. But injuries probably push the edge to Rory. Rory definitely over 5 years.

using any sort of average proximity to the hole in the calculation is futile when dealing with a non-linear situation.

I ran a calc using a 15% probability of hitting the fw with driver, vs 80% with a 2 iron and the driver while leading to a higher average score yielded a higher birdie %.

Win incoming.

Lol, Tiger without a hat on.

Tan line is problematic for sure. Lol.

Enjoying seeing him with a smile.

Yeah I totally glossed over that as I really didn't think of it doing the quick math. Proximity doesn't mean a ton in that situation. As hitting it to 30 feet every shot sucks compared to 5 feet half the time and 100 feet the other half.

Does Tiger win more than once this year?

You were saying...?

FWIW, I remember Tiger's game being one of consistency.. Rounds always around -4, and coasting to the win on Sunday. These guys like JT, Rory, and Dustin have the potential to just blow the competition away.. And if you look at some of the recent major winners, they all did it in incredibly impressive fashion. Day at PGA, Walker at PGA, Stenson, DJ, Thomas, etc.. Will Tiger adjust to play more aggressive, or will he look to play a conservative game and win with his 'B game'?

Tiger was 5-1 to win the Masters at the casino I was staying at in Vegas. It was 10-1 the week before. And 50-1 to at the start of the year.

I think hes gonna take this into consideration moving forward and we may start to see some greater variance in his scores. Higher highs and lower lows.

I don't think he adjusts his strategy. He's possibly the best course manager in history and is stubborn as hell anyway.

Very debatable. When you're a stroke (per round) better than the field you can play conservatively and when you win you'll look like you're the best course manager ever.

According to this:
https://www.pgatour.com/news/2009/05/09/charttiger.html

Tiger has two wins trailing by 5 going into the final round, two wins trailing by 4, and one win trailing by 3. He hasn't won a major coming from behind on the final day.

Obviously this isn't a comprehensive statistical analysis, but my intuition is that if he was truly a fantastic course manager he would have come from behind more often with his insane skill advantage and by correctly playing a little more aggressively.


You can't be a good course manager without dynamically adjusting your strategy

Completely agree with StinkyPete.

Tiger blew away the field plenty in his prime. Whether he can still do that? I would guess yes, if he stays healthy and given more reps to reach his best form at this point in his life... But who knows? If the real question is can his current "blow the field away" A game beat DJ, Rory, JT, etc on their current "blow the field away" A game, probably not at this point in his career... But if that's a once or twice a year thing for each of them, it's unlikely to matter. I think he still has it in him to blow the field away if none of the other top ~5 in the world goes off like that.

The memory of Tiger coasting to wins on Sunday was probably because he was nearly impossible to come from behind against and also built a lot of big leads... but it's likely/possible that the rest of the field was playing more conservatively than they do now, and that it'll be a different challenge.

Last full season Tiger was somewhat healthy 2013 he won 5 times..he can easily get back to 2-3/year.

Jan 28, 2013
Farmers Insurance Open (7)
−14 (68-65-69-72=274)
4 strokes
Brandt Snedeker, Josh Teater
76
Mar 10, 2013
Cadillac Championship (7)
−19 (66-65-67-71=269)
2 strokes
Steve Stricker
77
Mar 25, 2013
Arnold Palmer Invitational (8)
−13 (69-70-66-70=275)
2 strokes
Justin Rose
78
May 12, 2013
The Players Championship (2)
−13 (67-67-71-70=275)
2 strokes
David Lingmerth, Jeff Maggert
Kevin Streelman
79
Aug 4, 2013
Bridgestone Invitational (8)
−15 (66-61-68-70=265)
7 strokes
Keegan Bradley, Henrik Stenson

The snap-hook OB on 16.. (I think it was 16.) How much do we believe his explanation that he 'didn't commit'? It seems reasonable, but at the same time, Tiger's never admitted a weakness. (That's his prerogative, but I also don't have to believe everything he's said.)

If he's lying, and he choked, it's a bad sign.

Getting caught in indecision and not committing is a form of choking. I was really surprised when he admitted to that. Of course he's also a congenital liar so who the hell knows what actually happened.