HA! It was quite a holiday season for sure. I spent so much time on that thread it’s insane.

Did that thread lead to your work on DECADE?

Welcome back.

What do you think of all the forthcoming rule changes like taking a ball out of bunker?

What is your view of the long-putter?

Well you posted for 12 more days than I figured you would.

He's very active on twitter it looks like.

It was certainly what started my thinking a little harder on golf for sure.

I'm not sure what that rule is re:bunkers.

I have no issue with the long putter. I think if you wanted to have one set of rules for professionals and one for amateurs the long putter would be an easy one to make the game easier for amateurs and harder for professionals.

LOLOLOL! I must admit I forgot about this during the holidays!

Ship I heard you on Sirius radio the other day, good stuff man

I wrote a putting simulation program, with the following variables:
1. gravity;
2. slope of plane (single plane only, so no s-curve putts);
3. coefficient of friction;
4. distance;
5. Gaussian error for speed and alignment. (to simulate human error)

No accounting for grain, wind, or other variables.

I can dig it out and run it for various input values, if there is interest.

I haven't played much over the last few years (or posted, can't remember how to do the multi-quote). I'm hoping to play A TON this year. Just finished off a brutal two years after the deaths of my sister and nephews in April 2016. Culminating in a divorce finalized two weeks ago.

I'm ready to play and have some fun!

Thanks!!!!

wow Scott. i knew about 2016 but obviously wasn't aware of the recent events.
i'm guessing the time out on the course will be a great opportunity for you to clear your head.
looking forward to watching you qualify for the 2019 Open at Pebble twenty years after Pinehurst.

The US Am is there this summer! I'll hopefully be playing, but if not, since Will is now a professional another one of my players, Andy Zhang World #16 right now, has already asked me if I would loop for him.

Couldn't turn that down! I hadn't thought of it, but I bet I'll be able to loop for one of the WAGR TOp 20 in the US Am for quite a few years to come.

What are the biggest mistakes golfers make in their strategy? Both in terms of the absolute value of individual mistakes and cumulatively over a season?

What are the most obvious examples of "conventional wisdom" being wrong?

How many strokes would the average scratch golfer shave off by playing perfect strategy?

How many strokes would a scratch golfer lose by always aiming for the pin from 75-150?

Welcome back Ship! First time back on 2+2 for a year or so for me, haven't been playing much Poker the last couple years as it's been all about the golf.

I always enjoyed your insights on both topics, and I love what your alter ego SF has done with DECADE, it's awesome man, really resonates with me. I watched all the videos you've put out, follow the twitter and caught most of the podcasts out there.

Still haven't pulled the trigger on the lite App (This year!). I'm well overdue for a total bag changed (every club), so figured I should wait until after that happens. Looking forward to more excellent discussion here.

There doesn't seem to be a "critique my golf swing" thread, so I submit it to Ship--This, my dear leader:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8GkiWdUxDT8

If you haven't been following Ship's twitter, check it out for his insight over Tiger's decision to lay up on 18 and why it had the highest EV, variance just didn't go his way. This is what DECADE is all about.

https://twitter.com/scottfawcett

"Tiger's tee shot on 18 GAINED .03 strokes, his approach GAINED .04 strokes & Putt GAINED .04 strokes. As I say "It is far easier to intentionally not lose strokes than it is to intentionally gain strokes"- to birdie you need to gain over a shot somewhere which requires variance. In order to get that variance you need to be patient and disciplined. It didn't work out this time, but if you do what he did EVERY SINGLE TIME YOU ARE IN THAT SPOT it will work out some. This isn't tennis where the best wins almost every time. WAIT OUT VARIANCE."

Strokes gained one down with one hole left to play is 100% irrelevant. All that matters is maximizing the chance of birdie. The argument that you need to be "patient and disciplined" to "get that variance" is simply wrong. He gets a lot of variance simply by hitting driver off the tee. With driver his strokes gained will either be a lot more than .03 or negative most of the time. It's definitely not a universal truth that you need to maximize your expected strokes gained and "wait out variance" when you have exactly one hole left to make birdie and you can send your variance through the roof just by hitting driver.

That said, it's very possible that the way Tiger played it was optimal for maximizing his probability at birdie. I don't have enough information on that to know the answer. But the explanation provided is strategically/game theoretically/mathematically incomplete if not outright incorrect.

Completely agree with Pete. "Most strokes gained" and "Highest chance for birdie" are different things.

I've had this discussion with Ship on twitter and he agrees 2 iron likely wasn't the choice that maximized his birdie % which as stinkypete has posted is all that matter. 2 iron may be the club choice that leads to his lowest scoring avg on the hole but needing to make birdie that can be thrown out the window. Ship says he told his players to hit 3wd and would have Tiger do the same.

Here is some #math I did.



One of the most important concepts to understand is the non-linearity of birdie make % once you get to the green. While 2 iron leads to the highest GIR and most birdie looks, being aggressive off the tee and possibly giving yourself a few looks from inside 15 feet can significantly up your chances compared to a bunch of 30-40 foot putts.

I enjoyed watching this exchange unfold on Twitter. It's fun to watch random club pros or armchair coaches chime in with their "omg blah blah blah" every week and get shut down hard by logic and numbers.


-ReidLockhart