I made a bet with a friend. We find a practice green with a long, as flat as possible, 100 ft putt. I get 100 tries to sink one for $100.
I'm an average putter for a bogey golfer.
Who has the edge in this bet?

the friend

100 consecutive tries and you've got a decent shot

You if it's a flat green.

+1

IF the green isn't terribly slow. Having to whack the putt really hard would make it more difficult to keep it on line imo.

yeah hitting the exact same shot over and over again I would rather putt than take the other side

I like your side because you should get a feel for the putt. Even if it takes you the first 10 to dial in, you've got 90 more to get lucky.

I've gotta go with the friend because OP stated he's an average putter for a bogey golfer. This means he's not a very good putter. Regardless, it's damn difficult for any level golfer to make a 100ft putt no matter how many tries.

If it was me, I'd probably want to putt but in no way would it be a lock.

BO

I think green speed is crucial here. The key for the putter is simply making solid contact, and the faster the green the easier that's going to be.

I like the putter's side for sure.

The fact that you get to keep adjusting with instant feedback is what swings this into easy +EV territory. If it was 100 different hundred footers then you are a dog.

I'm about a 100 golfer. Would rather putt.

I think I'd happily bet against 95% of golfers

Depending on when the bet is, having time to practice would obviously be beneficial. It's not that hard to develop a reasonable putting stroke.

This sounds wrong to me. After the first 10 you're going to have a VERY good idea of how you need to hit it. After that you'll quickly get into a groove while making very slight adjustments and fine tuning.

100 putts is just a ton of putts. Once the guy figures it out and gets into a rhythm the majority of them should be finishing within 5 feet. With enough balls rolling that close he's bound to get one to drop.

I don't know that I would make a huge bet but I would be on the side of him missing!!

I would happily take a bet of $1000 or under that I would make 1 out of 100...like others have said assuming the greens are a decent speed and the putt doesn't have a crazy break after 10-15 putts you will be getting the majority of them close and just by sheer odds one of those should probably find the hole.

also it's not been said if the pin will be in (or a small putting green pin) as this makes it even easier because you could "slam" one home and just make sure you hit every putt hard enough and don't leave it short.

just my 2 cents

OK guys, let's look at this another way. On the PGA Tour what is the make percentage from 100 feet? Do you think it's any better than 2%? Very doubtful. And these are the best putters in the world. OP has already stated he's a bad putter.

Now of course some will say that this prop bet is different because OP gets to hit the same putt over and over. But PGA Tour pros putt the same speed greens over and over, and then they know almost every break on the greens before they even hit a putt. And since OP is a bad putter, it's not like getting used to the putt is going to help him very much. It's not much help if you can't hit a putt with proper speed and line.

Something else, how many of you have actually hit a 100 foot putt? Actually stepped it off to make certain it's 100 feet. It's a long damn ways, you've got to make such a big swing with the putter it's difficult to strike it exactly as you want.

Some are saying that in 100 putts you're bound to **** one in, but nobody has mentioned that you could also hit an absolutely perfect putt that lips out. So this logic is crap.

Also, nobody has mentioned that the money involved is bound to have a negative effect on the consistency of stroke.

I think I tour pro would have the advantage, a 100 shooter would have a disadvantage. And since it's a putt from on the green, there would be no pin.

BO

This was pretty much my thought.

I think this is kind of a sucker bet for someone who just looks at it like "well, I've had a ton of 100ft putts in my life and have never made one, so the odds must be <1% for each putt".

However, each trial in this situation isn't equal. The more you putt it, the more dialed in you will get for the feel of that green and any slight breaks and where it needs to be. Also, it being as flat a putt as we can find is also key as that makes it multiples easier, IMO.

This bet should be going down in the next week or so, so I will update.

I was trying to think of what the line would have to be for me to take the 'over' on # of putts. I'm thinking probably somewhere in the 60-70 range.

Whether you succeed or fail in this one trial, just realize you're a dog in this wager.

BO

IMO getting the *one* that happens to have the right line AND correct speed to drop in is a long shot. I'd say the odds of this happening are well under 1 in a 100. Not sure if that means that it's a 1:150 or what, but I'd bet against all day long at 1:100.

I have seen a prop bet involving a +2 handicap or so player. It was on a 50 footer and the player got to practice any putt for 10 minutes and then pick a 50 footer he wanted to take. He then got 10 tries for $20k. He lost the first attempt and won a double or nothing on the last putt the next week at a different course.

Clearly a 100 footer is exponentially harder than a 50 footer so not necessarily relevant, just interesting.

Absolutely absurd.

What does the fact that you can lip some out have to do with anything? That does nothing to detract from the point being made.

I'd take this bet as the putter in a heartbeat - but I am a pretty good long putter. Not sure for a mediocre putter.

I like the putter. The key here is having a relatively flat putt.

Not to mention the elation you will feel if one drops while your opponent's soul crushed at the same time. You can't put a price on something like that.

I think it's a decent bet. I don't think your a lock but if your semi competent and the conditions are right you should be a favorite. After the first hand full you should have a decent feel for the line and pace then you've got 85+ chances to freak one in. Now a hundred feet is looong. For instance I would much rather have 50 from 50 GL