Quote:
Originally Posted by revots33
Willett had to be 99% to win before Max hit that chip.
As it turned out (probs estimated):
-Homa chipping in 0.03:
-Homa up and down: 0.75;
-Willett missing from 3'7 0.08;
-Willett missing from 4'8 0.2.
Homa win outright: 0.03 x 0.08 x 0.2 = 0.00048
Homa win playoff (a): 0.03 x 0.08 x 0.8 x 0.5 = 0.00096
Homa win in playoff (b): 0 75 x 0.08 x 0.2 x 0.5 = 0 006
Homa win: 0.00744 or 133:1.
I'm assuming Willet would not 4 putt.
I'm guessing generic 3 putt prob from 3'7 is about 0.003. That increases Homa's odds to 440:1 if calculated that way, instead of using the 4'8 2nd putt distance.
Last edited by PokerHero77; 09-18-2022 at 10:31 PM.