Quote:
Originally Posted by ntnBO
I see you got a good answer in the sports betting thread.
Yardages can change up to perhaps 40-50 yards between days. But once a PGA Tour site has a solid history, the committee typically sets up each hole the same four ways they previously have. But not necessarily in the same order from round 1 to round 4. So the best way would be to look to see how it was done last year.
Am curious, what difference does 20 yards on some random par 4 make for fantasy purposes?
Basically, short par 4s are usually easier than longer ones. Birdies rates increase, thus more points.
For me though, I'm usually looking at the approach shots. On a typical 420 yard par 4, guys will go Driver-Wedge or 3-Wood-Short Iron. So I'm looking at the proximity to the hole for those approach shots, too. Better Proximity, better chance at birdies.
Same goes with par 3s. Par 3 distances vary, so when a hole is on the card as 227, I'd look at the 225-250 Proximity, maybe combine it with 200-225. If it plays 193, totally different approach bucket.
I tweak probabilities for each players and run a couple hundred simulations to see who shows up more than others.