i'm in the camp that Spieth snap rejects that deal.

Do you realize how rare 20 wins is?

List of active PGA pros with 20 or more wins:

Tiger
Phil
Vijay
DL3

(Vijay and DL3 are "active", but neither have won since 2008).
Only Els is close, with 19. Next highest is Furyk with 16.

One would be foolish to be offered "one of the 4 best active careers" and not take it. There isn't an active pro with 5 or more wins (besides the 4 listed above, ldo) who shouldn't take it except Rory (24 yo, 6 wins) and maybe Dustin Johnson (29 yo, 7 wins). Spieth is really too young to tell, though.

Most players also dont win while they are still a teenager either. Keep in mind this kind on the US Junior Am twice too. He has done remarkable things before the age of 20. The only other player I can think of that has done this is Tiger Woods and well.... hes the GOAT

I think if Spieth were offered 20 wins 3 majors no players he takes it, but not DL3's numbers. I guess that shows what I think of the significance of the PGA Champ versus the Players

Ernie has way more than 20 wins though when you include his worldwide stuff. Not to mention 4 majors.

I don't think he takes it either, because... why would he already want to know how his career plays out? I wouldn't if I were him. I'd risk having an 8 win/0 major career where I'm 42 and counting the days until I'm 50. lol.

For some reason when I was watching him play today I just randomly thought the O/U on his career might be like DL3's career.

Would you place a 50/50 bet on this Over theoretically if an escrow account matched inflation for the next 30 years?

wow

Out of curiosity, I decided to extrapolate from October 1996.

At that time (with current number of wins in parentheses):

Got to 20:
Greg Norman: 41 yo, 18 wins (20)
DL3: 32 yo, 10 wins (20)
Vijay: 33 yo, 3 wins (34)
Phil: 25 yo, 9 wins (42)
Tiger: 20 yo, 2 wins (79)

Already at 20:
Tom Watson: 47 yo, 38 wins (39)

Didn't get to 20:
Corey Pavin: 36 yo, 14 wins (15)
Nick Price: 39 yo, 15 wins (18)
Mark Calcavecchia: 36 yo, 9 wins (13)
Paul Azinger: 36 yo, 11 wins (12)
Steve Elkington: 33 yo, 6 wins (10)
Ernie Els: 27 yo, 3 wins (19)
Furyk: 26 yo, 2 wins (16)

If you were back in 1996 with this list of golfers, I'd guess no one would think Vijay would hit 20. Everyone would have guessed Phil. Tiger was a no-brainer (2 wins in one month at age 20). Norman was a safe bet (and his numbers are depressed because he spent much of his career outside the US). But golfers who liked like safe bets didn't make it. Pavin was only 36 with 14 wins, only won one more time.

What are you wowing at?

gusmahler these guys don't think like that, they wouldn't be there if they were. His mindset is " IM GONNA CRUSH GOLF " and thats why he is succesful, besides 20 W's 1 Major is a snap sick call if you are Harrison Frazar or Jeff Quiney and already have your career behind you. But kids dreams bigger, even if he ends up with like 4 career weeks he's not gonna regret taking his shot EVER.

i was basing my "snap reject" post on DL3's one major. don't think Spieth would snap take one major.

Not many people average a win per season over a long time period. Big players like Kuchar, Stricker, Harrington, Leonard aren't even close. Fowler, the Next Great Thing who was talked about in this regard at a much higher rate than Spieth, has 1 career win in 102 starts over four full seasons.

Spieth probably has higher aspirations than one major and probably thinks he can win more than 20 tourneys, but his equity really can't be much higher than that.

He's probably thinking he could crush the next 5 years and maybe win 20 already. He's been owning this year and basically just stepped out of the classroom and teed off. Who knows how much better he'll get in the next few years.

I'm glad he thinks that, but in this hypothetical, we should be analyzing reality, not dreams. No one should be under any such impression of 20 in 5.

CH3 DQd for non conforming club, apparently a dial fell off his driver on the range yesterday which he asked a rules official about post round. Rules of Golf strike again?

Doesnt matter how much Fowler was talked about because he didnt do near what spieth has done before age 20. Fowler was definitely overhyped. I could easily see Spieth having 20 wins and a few majors before age 35. He just isnt a true rookie. Been playing in pga tourneys since age 16. Kid has just got game and shows it week in and week out. Curious to see how he will do this year in the Presidents Cup assuming hes on the team but I definitely feel like you would have to be a moron to not put such an amazing young talent on the team.

Still hope he wins this week. 2 wins this year with no real status on tour would be phenomenal and I definitely would not bet against him

I am not sure how the dial falling off makes it non conforming? Especially if it happened prior to teeing off and he never fixed it

Pretty sure this isnt the first time someoned has been DQed for this

Of course I realize that elite golfers don't think that they aren't going to win 20 tourneys.

So analyze from a bettor's perspective. How many golfers on the tour now would you bet the over on if o/u is 19.5? Rory is the only one I'd snap take the over on. Despite the lack of love that DL3 gets for his career, 20 wins is pretty elite.

But I wonder if it'll actually get easier to get to 20 wins rather than harder. After all, Spieth and Rory won't have Tiger taking away 5 wins a year from them and Phil taking another 2 (At least not for too much longer).

Let's put it this way. If I was Jordan Spieth, I'd snap reject.. .At the same time, I'd bet against him.

Jimmy Herman needs T3 or better to >125. Currently he is T4. Lets make some birdies!

This pretty much sums it up. Logically, you should take it, but no talented 20-year-old would put that kind of limit on himself.

He could have a career somewhere between DL3 and Phil, he's certainly got the game for it. Of course, he could have Scott Verplank's career, too.

I would be quite fine taking a bet for even money on under 19.5 career wins for anyone who currently has 1.

And, yeah, the rules of golf strike again - just once I'd like to see someone DQ'ed for an actual attempt at gaining a competitive advantage, not a stupid technicality.

I agree with you guys. I'd bet money against 20 wins but if I were in his position I wouldn't blindly accept that career, either.

Yep.

who's yer horse today? I'll take Spieth.