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Official 2013 PGA Tour FEDEX CUP Discussion Thread Official 2013 PGA Tour FEDEX CUP Discussion Thread

08-05-2013 , 06:53 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by UCBananaboy
I kinda feel like Tiger hits a wall mentally post-scandal (whether it be self-doubt, the immense pressure he puts on himself, or something else) -- but once he breaks through (and he will), he'll regain that confidence and dominate again...
This is essentially exactly what BO is saying. And what I have been saying for awhile.

Quote:
Originally Posted by tzwien
I don't think he has a wall. Has he taken any leads going into Sunday in the majors in the last 5 years and not closed? How many majors in the past did he win when he didn't have a Sunday lead? He hasn't set himself up very well on Saturdays, but he also missed those opportunities in the past.

This 'wall' is just us creating an excuse or false reason for him not winning. Tiger's never been a great player from behind. The only reason he has so many wins is because he crushes fields before Sunday. He doesn't have the comeback gene. You can call that the wall if you want to, but it's not something new.
I don't think anyone is claiming this is a Sunday thing. Everyone is in agreement that it's a major weekend issue. He has been in really good shape after Friday in what feels like a good portion of the last dozen majors, only to play relatively poorly on Saturday. I don't recall that happening, especially at the frequency it is now, from 2000-2009. Maybe the data will prove me wrong on that, but my gut feeling is that he has more top 10's after two rounds without winning in the last few years than he did through his entire career previously.
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08-05-2013 , 06:59 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DisGunBGud
25-1 okay I'll take that on a ban bet.

25 months to you BANNED if Tiger wins
1 month to me BANNED if Tiger loses

It doesn't even make sense I'd just like for you to finally put up or shut up in some shape or form. This isn't even $ either you **** so no excuses, man up
You kids are hilarious, all you can say is HU4ROLLZ or GTFO. I present my stance and state my feelings and all you do is make juvenile retorts. Besides, no one would miss you here. All you do is make snide remarks and have zero knowledge to contribute to the teaching threads.

Besides, something tells me you can get yourself banned without any help.

BO
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08-05-2013 , 07:10 PM
Is ok Bo, your words have just as little value to us as they apparently do to you.
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08-05-2013 , 07:11 PM
Skin

In

The

Game

It's the only way to hold people accountable for all the bs they spew from their mouth.

Being a gambling forum, this is where we are way way ahead of the general public in weeding out worthless/bs opinions.
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08-05-2013 , 07:31 PM
We should simply all put BO on ignore. He adds nothing and is clearly enjoying all the attention. I'm guessing he is a 16 year old kid living in his moms basement. I'm a guilty as anyone but we all need to stop feeding the troll.
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08-05-2013 , 07:32 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ntnBO
You kids are hilarious, all you can say is HU4ROLLZ or GTFO. I present my stance and state my feelings and all you do is make juvenile retorts. Besides, no one would miss you here. All you do is make snide remarks and have zero knowledge to contribute to the teaching threads.

Besides, something tells me you can get yourself banned without any help.

BO
YES HU4ROLLZ or


Websters: juvenile - to suggest BO put his $ where his $ is

Did you really go high school on me? No one would miss me here? Something about knowledge in a thread I never post in blah blah blah. Even you're better than this BO. What was your weed laced with growing up?

And BO isn't 16 unless you multiply that by 6. He met Jack once just ask him.
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08-05-2013 , 07:36 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ntnBO
You kids are hilarious, all you can say is HU4ROLLZ or GTFO. I present my stance and state my feelings and all you do is make juvenile retorts. Besides, no one would miss you here. All you do is make snide remarks and have zero knowledge to contribute to the teaching threads.

Besides, something tells me you can get yourself banned without any help.

BO
You act like you were missed when you temporarily left. You must have missed all the posts saying how much better the forum was without you here.
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08-05-2013 , 08:03 PM
lol at Tiger being 25-1 to win any tournament.
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08-05-2013 , 08:26 PM
Tiger wouldn't be 25-1 in a tournament that had every golfer that ever lived in the field.
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08-05-2013 , 08:40 PM
Woods has won 79/304 PGA tournaments. He wins 26% of the time on the PGA! One in 4 times! This year his win rate is 50%. Anyone who thinks he is 25:1 to win a tournament is a complete moron. Period. End of story. Undebateable.


P.S. the next best is Nicklaus at 12%.
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08-05-2013 , 09:06 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ntnBO
This week Tiger is what, 5-1? If I think the true line is 25-1, to me that seems like a suicidal wager.
Quote:
Originally Posted by NxtWrldChamp
While finishing 2nd would keep his Masters odds in your mind at 25:1.
I never said anything about the Masters, his true chances at Augusta are always better than the other majors.

Quote:
Originally Posted by DisGunBGud
25-1 okay I'll take that on a ban bet.
Quote:
Originally Posted by tzwein
Tiger wouldn't be 25-1 in a tournament that had every golfer that ever lived in the field.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Clovis8
Anyone who thinks he is 25:1 to win a tournament is a complete moron. Period. End of story. Undebateable.
Do you brilliant minds understand the meaning of the words "if I think"? IF. Just using numbers to show why I think Tiger will be a much better bet if he were to win another major.

And by the way, where are all those who believe I have no clue about sports betting after I laid out my thoughts step by step? Please explain the error in my logic. You may or may not agree with my rationale, but this is betting logic we're talking about.

BO
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08-05-2013 , 10:51 PM
It's all just "if" you think so why waste our time.
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08-05-2013 , 10:59 PM
BO, you're talking gambling on a gambling forum. That's how odds work, there has to be some stake in the game. If you're willing to just spout off whatever you feel about betting odds while trying to say your knowledge is superior to someone else's, you have to back it up. If you are unwilling to do so, then you are a troll by any definition.
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08-06-2013 , 01:18 AM
If you were on Tour, would you bum-hunt? Would you play in the Reno Tahoe Open if you were eligible to play in the WGC, etc?
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08-06-2013 , 01:48 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DickPound
If you were on Tour, would you bum-hunt? Would you play in the Reno Tahoe Open if you were eligible to play in the WGC, etc?
Of course not?
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08-07-2013 , 12:13 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ntnBO
Here are some of my thoughts on Tiger's betting lines.

This week Tiger is what, 5-1? If I think the true line is 25-1, to me that seems like a suicidal wager.

Now, let's assume he wins this week and when the Masters rolls around his odds are 3-1. If I think the true odds are 5-2, to me that seems like a good wager.

So even though in the second example he's a much bigger favorite, I feel it's a much better bet. The 2nd bet is +EV while the 1st is horribly -EV.

So tell me what is wrong with this rationale.

BO
Sorry my computer PSU burst yesterday and I just installed the new one tonight.

I think you made a blanket statement "Don't bet on Tiger [to win a major] until he wins another major."

Forget about Vegas odds. There is a line at which you should feel comfortable betting on Tiger. It's all about speculation. If you think he's 25-1 and your friend offers you up to a $10K bet at 30-1, you should take it and lay down an amount you are comfortable with losing, because that's an insanely +EV bet. This isn't complicated. Saying don't bet on him until he wins again is silly. That only makes sense if you think he is 0% to win right now....... which obviously is proven to be false at some point in the future if he wins again. You would then look back and think "Man, I can't believe I thought he was 0% to win...until he won again. What a mouth-breathing idiot I was. That sure is some stupid hillbilly logic."

I'm also just not sure that you'll find a line from a sportsbook post-15th major that suits your eye any more than you would find one now, pre-15th major. Because there are probably a lot of people out there like you who will put money down (or more of it) after he wins his 15th, and drive the line way down to a terribly low level. But obviously I may be wrong there, but I doubt it. And even if I'm wrong it's probably a sliver of a window.

How many golfers do you think can win 5 events by August (2 WGCs and The Players) and are not ready to make that next step to winning a MAJOR? lol. None. Any man who can win those 5 events can win a major. Even if as you say he's got some mental block or whatever, that can probably be negated by simple positive variance. In other words, though he's the GOAT golfer and by far and away the best right now, he can still accidentally win a major, in spite of his mental block or whatever you wish to assign to his drought.
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08-09-2013 , 11:20 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by A-Rod's Cousin
Sorry my computer PSU burst yesterday and I just installed the new one tonight.

I think you made a blanket statement "Don't bet on Tiger [to win a major] until he wins another major."

Forget about Vegas odds. There is a line at which you should feel comfortable betting on Tiger. It's all about speculation. If you think he's 25-1 and your friend offers you up to a $10K bet at 30-1, you should take it and lay down an amount you are comfortable with losing, because that's an insanely +EV bet. This isn't complicated. Saying don't bet on him until he wins again is silly. That only makes sense if you think he is 0% to win right now....... which obviously is proven to be false at some point in the future if he wins again. You would then look back and think "Man, I can't believe I thought he was 0% to win...until he won again. What a mouth-breathing idiot I was. That sure is some stupid hillbilly logic."

I'm also just not sure that you'll find a line from a sportsbook post-15th major that suits your eye any more than you would find one now, pre-15th major. Because there are probably a lot of people out there like you who will put money down (or more of it) after he wins his 15th, and drive the line way down to a terribly low level. But obviously I may be wrong there, but I doubt it. And even if I'm wrong it's probably a sliver of a window.

How many golfers do you think can win 5 events by August (2 WGCs and The Players) and are not ready to make that next step to winning a MAJOR? lol. None. Any man who can win those 5 events can win a major. Even if as you say he's got some mental block or whatever, that can probably be negated by simple positive variance. In other words, though he's the GOAT golfer and by far and away the best right now, he can still accidentally win a major, in spite of his mental block or whatever you wish to assign to his drought.
+1
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08-12-2013 , 02:44 AM
USA holds 5 of the top 8 in the OWGR (including #1 and #2).

Spoiler:
dominance
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08-12-2013 , 11:56 PM
LOLLLLLLLLL PGA Tour eliminates "Caddy races" (16th hole at TPC Scottsdale) effective immediately.

Wow, what a fail. GJ, GE PGA

Yet "BABABOOOOOOEY!" "GET IN THE HOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOLE!" and "MASHED POTATO!!!!!!!!" are fine.
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08-13-2013 , 12:00 AM
Is Dancing Gangnam Style still ok?
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08-13-2013 , 01:55 AM
scalloped potatoes had me lol'ing
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08-13-2013 , 01:37 PM
Caddy races are elite. The cherry on top of what would IMO be the most fun event to go to.

Whats the penalty if they just flat out refuse?
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08-13-2013 , 10:46 PM
It'll make the betting on who wins more fun IMO.
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08-14-2013 , 12:14 AM
this seems like pretty big news:

PGA Tour, Euro Tour in talks

http://espn.go.com/golf/story/_/id/9...ur-reports-say
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08-14-2013 , 02:44 AM
That'd be awesome. The more global the game goes, the better, imo.
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