Quote:
Originally Posted by homanga
"Woods owns a 51–4 record when holding at least a share of the lead after 54 holes, and 40–2 record when holding the outright lead."
Historically over 95%; I'd put it at 85-90% in today's tiger world (intimidation factor is diminished…maybe not for Rose though lol)
Your thoughts Bo?
If this was 5 years ago I'd take -200 in a heartbeat.
But it's quite different these days. As you said intimidation factor is diminished, significantly IMO. And while Tiger is playing well at present, he's proven over the last year that a bad round can (and has) cropped up at any time. His stumble to the finish at Doral absolutely would not have happened 5 years ago regardless of how many strokes he was ahead.
Also, Bay Hill has shown this week that low scores are out there. So there's no telling who could throw a 65 up there and make things difficult.
I wouldn't be surprised tomorrow if Tigers runs away and hides. I wouldn't be surprised if Tiger plays poorly. I wouldn't be surprised if someone comes from behind and catches him.
-300 is stealing from the public, I'd take even odds for sure but not certain if I'd go any higher.
It's definitely an interesting exercise, but always remember why the books come out ahead the vast majority of the time.
BO