Just curious what people think of the right odds to give somebody that’s really bad at golf 4 months to break 100. Here are some info:

1) golfer routinely shoots in the 125-135 range on golf course A
2) golf course A rating: 72.8, slope : 138
3) golfer will have unlimited access to professional coaching and training 2-3 days a week

I’m sure it’s doable but just wondering what odds to give for said effort.

If they're young and without physical limitations, I'm not sure I'd give any odds. Someone who shoots those numbers has incredibly fundamental flaws that can be addressed in one lesson, and they'd gain 10-20 strokes with a week's worth of practice.

Although that's a somewhat difficult course, so maybe I'm way off.

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Good point! 50 yr old male and not that athletic .

How many times does he get to try? Can he just play every day and if he breaks 100 he wins? Or is it on a certain day 4 months in the future he gets one shot at it? If its the former and he's motivated its probably even money, if its the latter he's nearly dead IMO

Would be curious what makes the golf course difficult -- lots of water? forced carries? trees? long yardage?

basic answer is "NO"

a few more questions:

1) does the guy put any effort into golf now? i.e. driving range/practice.. does he care that he's terrible? does he understand the basic golf swing? or is he a 2wice a year/corporate player?

2) will he do proper scoring? all penalty strokes and everything putted out. that almost always leads to higher scores for people (if they actually do that)

3) time/interest/money to take advantage of lessons and opportunity to improve?

4) this is a big one...... are there drop zones near greens (over water) or relating to long forced carries?

that course rating/slope is high...... I can think of a few holes (British Columbia/Vegas) where it's hard to get the ball into play off the tee. I think a US Open hole had this problem 20 years ago.

I'm trying to think of rating vs. slope...

is the idea that rating is how hard it is for a good player? and slope adjusts more for lousy players?

I look at my own home course. low course rating/high slope... seems like there's all kinds of gnarly stuff at my course, but if you hit every shot reasonably straight and solid, you'll avoid 85%+ of the stuff.....whereas I know another course that might be the opposite. not much trouble but very very tricky greens. of course, my 15 handicap is already butchering things around the green anyway.

similar to my other comments, I would say that at those course rating/slope, potential for some massive blow-up holes.... is he gonna take an 11 or 12, like scoring says he should?

I would think he would put in a lot of effort now that there's a convo of a bet. He has the time and has the motivation to play.

Proper scoring for sure, OBs and lost balls still using the old rule of re-hitting from the same spot.

No drop zones for water on this course. Either re-tee, or drop nearest point of entry.

Course was designed to host a European PGA event. Greens running around 9.5-10 now but as it gets colder (8-10C), stimp goes to 11-11.5.

There's a lot of action on the "no he won't". Just trying to get the odds right.

There definitely willl be somebody at all times with a shot counter following!

If someone is shooting in the 120's and 130's, why in the hell would they play from a set of tees that give a rating of 72.8 and slope of 138? Move up where the rating in <70 for Christ's sakes.

They should also read this book: https://www.amazon.com/How-play-golf.../dp/B000HH40IO. I have a copy and it's fantastic.

Odds are set at 6.5-1. First round is tomorrow!

Interesting... Please keep us updated if you can.

First round after 3 lessons for him! Lots of lost balls and OBs. The 151 he shot probably included 20 penalties though. 4 months to go...

I play off of a 14 to put it in perspective on the difficulty of the course. Best score on this course was 87.

He stands to win right around $50K EUR if he can break 100.

Jesus Christ, lol.

Please tell me there is no one behind you when this is going on. Or that the course is closed.

About 25 years ago my area held a "worst regular golfer" tournament. I followed the two finalists for nine holes. It was hilarious--and both guys were trying their best to beat the other guy. I just couldn't stomach the back nine.

Jedi: how many rounds that "count" does he get to try? Can he just go play every day and if he breaks 100 he wins?

The course is private and we had the first tee time at 6:30. It also helps that we know the owner and the people behind us were all friends. The caddies also helped a lot in finding balls.

And yes, he can play as many rounds as he likes but at least one of us will have to be there to count the score or it doesn't count.

Seems like he has given up playing for at least a month. He says he will be working on his swing and the next round will be in October.

Given this info I think he's probably an underdog to win but 6.5:1 is way too high, gl I guess. I suppose I'd have to see how bad his swing is (what tees are you playing / whats the yardage?) but he should simply take lessons mostly on short game and then play every day for the last few weeks. If he is a hard worker he could easily be the favorite. But it sounds like he probably just won't put in the time.

I agree with the short game stuff, not sure I’d agree putting this off until the last few weeks though.

iirc he’s like 50 and not athletic, playing 18 everyday or even every other day will take it’s toll on him. Then the other side of him feeling a bit of pressure due to time left. (I obviously don’t know if he actually cares about the money that is on the line and how significant it is to him).

Then imo you cannot replace course practice,

Jedi you play with him right? What do you see? From a swing stand point and a course management side?

Swing: Terrible. Course mgmt: better than terrible. I would probably have given 10-1 if he pushed for it but we started at 4-1, then negotiated it to 6.5.

We are playing from the blues, hence the 72.8/138 slope.

151 is rough. Played with a coworker yesterday and he shot 126 which is probably the highest score I have ever written down, and there were multiple pick-ups.

Lots of room to improve.

Back in the 90’s before pre qualifiers I was paired with a guy in Byron Nelson qualifying that shot 128. If I haven’t shared that full story before I definitely need to. It’s amazing.

Here it is. https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/9...?#post52210678

absolutely hilarious