Quote:
Originally Posted by jk3a
anyone know of any resource that would answer the following type of question...
% chance of a tour player hitting an approach inside say 5-10 ft from 150yds. The approach stats on pga tour website give great data for the averages but obv not the full data.
Basically I'm trying to figure out just how bad the odds are on the circle par 3 betting holes that go on during scrambles where some "charity" offers you 3:1 or something to hit in the circle.
Broadie, who wrote Every Shot Counts likes to use "Median Leave %" rather than proximity to hole. Median Leave % just tells you that half your shots end up inside X distance.
The Tour average from 100-150 yards is 5.5%, meaning from whatever distance they hit the shot from, half of their shots will be within 5.5% of the starting distance from the hole.
For example, from 150 yards it would look like this.
150 yard shot * 5.5% *3(to convert from yards to feet) = 24.75 feet.
From 125...
125 * 5.5 * 3 = 20.6 feet
For the typical 90's golfer their Median Leave % is 12%. So from 125 yards they hit half of their shots inside 45 feet.
For reference, I am a + handicap and I've basically ShotTracked every round I've played this year, and my Median Leave % from 125-150 yards is ~7%. To take it a step further my top 25% of shots have a leave % of 4.7%. This number gets us a little closer to helping with the charity deal.
So from 150 I will hit 50% of my shots inside 32 feet and 25% of my shots inside 21 feet.
Based on the above, if Tour players and 90s shooters follow roughly the same relationship between their Median leave and 25% leave as I do then from 100-150 their 25% leaves would look something like
Pros- Hit 1 out of 4 shots to 3.7% or from 125 yards 25% would end up inside ~14 feet
90s- Hit 1 out of 4 shots to 8% or from 125 yards 25% would end up inside ~30 feet
So Pro's being offered 3 to 1 to hit it inside 15 feet from 125 yards is a losing proposition. For 90s shooters it is a raping. Move back to 150 yards and it's even more brutal.
The breakeven offer for me would be ~6 to 1 to hit it inside 15 feet from 125 yards. For a 90s shooter it's likely 10 to 1 or more.