TBF he was previously a 2 and his handicap slipped due to less than serious play. +1 takes some serious talent, not just hitting consistently in the fairway or not making big numbers.

guessing that was during your time at Riverside?
Dan's first instructor, the one that made him spend countless hours putting then work his way to chipping, etc. was Christopher Smith. Smith was based out of Pumpkin at the time (i think he's in Eugene now), and was also a consultant at Nike when they were still in the club/ball/bag business and all in on golf before the tiger effect wore off.
he was one of the first proponents of speed golf and i believe he still holds some records that have stood for 15+ years (how many people can shoot 65 in under an hour playing with half a dozen clubs?).
i had several conversations with Smith many years ago when i was a consultant to nike golf on a few projects. really interesting guy who seems to know his stuff

My perception is he's one of the better instructors in Oregon.

Yes, Riverside. I remember reading the minutes denying his pitch for free membership.

I didn't like the course (or the pro, who wanted to be Waverly and enforced a bunch of stupid rules that alienated people), but they had my favorite short game facility ever. Two greens 100 yards apart, with about 120 to play with, that no one ever used. I credit my 100-yards-in game to Riverside (along with my ability to hit a punch shot....SOOOOO many trees).

better than Edgewater's short game facility plus their par 3 course?
i actually have never played at Riverside. have a few friends who are or were members (one of whom was the pres of the men's club at one point in time), and have been invited to play in their member/guest in the past but just couldn't make it work at the time.

For pure practice, it's close.

Astoria is darn good, too, and speaking of par 3, they're talking about putting one in. Much easier to drag my wife out to play.

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Last night out drinking with a couple buddies, they offered me a bet: $50k even money, I have to play 5 pre-specified rounds at our home course and average under 80 before the end of 2026. The course is 70.5 rating 115 slope. I am a 21.6 handicap who's probably a little better than that at the short game and has a pretty terrible full swing.

This is free money, right? Like, the only possible way I lose this bet is if I don't have enough time to improve my game, no? I'm about to be unemployed so that helps. $50k isn't life changing money for me and I wish it was $500k to give me more motivation, but I still don't see any reason I shouldn't take this bet.

If you are a 21 and have any sort of athletic ability this shouldn't be too hard. Not sure it's free money per se but yeah shouldn't be too hard

Cool thanks! To clarify, I'm 34 and in slightly above average shape, so no physical limitations here.

I know the process won't be easy, but I was planning to try to get better anyway, so I don't really view the money I put into improvement as cutting into the EV of the bet.

I def think you are a favorite to win that bet. What is the approximate date of the first round and hopefully the don't see a 40* day with 30 mph winds and say OK today is the day.

i assume the course is a par 72? and it sounds like you have to specify that a round counts towards the average before you play it? i don't think this is a easy as you seem to make it out to be. it feels like you'd need to get your HC down in the low teens to have a shot, and imagine the potential pressure of the last round knowing what score you need to shoot.

I'm now a 21.7. I think I'm reasonably athletic. I don't think I'd win this bet. 47 years old fwiw.

Let's break the numbers down properly before we discuss possible improvement. Handicaps are derived from the 8 best of the last 20, therefore your average score is always going to be higher than your handicap. So if you get your index down to 7 then your average score is going to be close to 80. So to be even money you have to improve 14.6 strokes.

But then there's the semantics of the wager, who decides when the rounds are played? Can your buddy say you have to play in 40 degree weather with the wind blowing 20? The wager is assumed to be playing the course in average conditions, but could that be tampered with?

Then there's the pressure of the 5 rounds associated with the wager, do you really think you'll play to your handicap with that on the line? Most would not.

So if everything works out perfect for OP, an index of 7 shows approximate even odds of winning the bet. That's with standard weather and no choking during the 5 rounds.

So then we discuss improvement, can OP go from a 21.6 to a 7 in 5 years or less? Some golfers your age could make this improvement in a year while others could practice their entire lives and not get down to a 7. Golf is funny, it helps to be athletic but it's by no means a guarantee. Let's not forget the Dan Plan, he put in 6-7k hours with no other commitments and couldn't crack a 2. Heck, a 2 isn't a lock to win this wager although he would be a prohibitive favorite.

So many golfers who shoot in the 90's think they could be studs if only they had the time to practice. It's not true, at least not most of the time. OP would probably have to commit close to $10k in lessons over a couple of years in addition to a ton of time in order to improve. He's not going to be unemployed during all that time, at least I hope not. That means finding time for the lessons and the work.

I know nothing about OP's game, so it's impossible to know if the potential is there. The above is simply laying out the facts about what the next few years would entail. It's definitely not a lock, wouldn't be a lock for any golfer who's currently a 21.6. It's definitely not a loss either.

thanks BO for taking the time to post all the things i was thinking, and doing some actual math on the HC required to be in a reasonable slot to pull this off.
if i was going to put serious dollars on a side it would be on the side of not being able to pull it off.

Same.
The requirement to specify which rounds count in advance seems to be the real killer to the golfer here.

I just think getting to a 5-7 handicap really isn’t that hard with proper planning and practice. Agree the requirement to state which rounds will count adds an interesting twist. But the course rating/slope looks pretty easy.

I would definitely be in OPs side here

what's your HC right now slim?

2-ish

I think we can all agree that slim is an excellent player, but would still not be a lock to win this bet at his home course. As a matter of fact, if I got to pick the days of play, he wouldn’t have a chance. If I got to pick the course and let him pick the days, he wouldn’t have a chance.

And this is a 2 we are discussing, OP is currently almost 20 strokes higher than that. Just food for thought.

I assume the approximate date would be August-September 2026. I can wait for a day with good conditions, I don't need to pick dates in advance.

Thanks a lot, really thoughtful post!

I do get to pick the rounds in advance. I think that's pretty important -- this course can get pretty dried out in the summer and play a lot shorter than it otherwise does.

I also had it in my head that I'd need to be a 5-7 to make it happen.

I guess one thing that's also worth mentioning is that golf is a hobby that I've been taking pretty competitively, but also have a lot of fun with; this could tip the balance into overcompetitiveness and take the fun out of it for me.

I've gone back and forth on this a few times today but am now currently leaning against taking it. I want to motivate myself to get better, but I'm thinking maybe I'll just have a "I'll give myself a trip to Bandon when my handicap gets under X" rather than taking this bet.

This is an incredibly observant realization. Golf is supposed to be fun, we play because we want to. Not because we have to. And with $50k on the line that might turn it into a job. And jobs can suck.

Whichever way you go with this, make sure you always enjoy time spent at the course. Even if the score isn’t what you want.

All caveats above are, of course, true (with the exception of me being an excellent player). But OP's course has a slope of 115 and CR of 70.5. This is a VERY easy golf course. Granted that is where his 21 hdcp currently comes from. But I just think if he has a modicum of athletic ability and prepares properly (ie practices with a competent professional) I think getting to a 5-7 isn't very hard. Perhaps I'm off base in the challenge of that. Not sure.

I would envision a scenario where OP is playing a bunch after improving and shoots several good rounds in a row. Then declares his next round as a counting round. Usually when we play well we play well in bunches.

I do agree we don't know how well OP will react when the bell rings. That's always questionable.

My inclination is that over a 5 year period this shouldn't be that hard. Mabe not 90% or whatever but certainly a decent favorite

OP would need to have a mulligan round, two would be much better, even to consider this bet seriously imo.

It does look as if he is going to use his time and money more wisely though.

I would have already taken it for $500k but ya grinding this one out for 50 seems like a LOT of work for not a whole lot of EV. Like I'm shuddering to think what my hourly would be on this one after you net out the lessons I'd pay for + the fact that I never actually become a lock to win even if I become a 5.

Actually did some quick math and the hourly even for a $500k bet isn't amazing. I guess "hourly" is difficult to measure because a lot of those hours are ones I would have been playing/practicing anyway, but it's definitely a bet that should only be done if you have something beyond a financial incentive. Doing it for $50k seems more like absolute insanity and I'm glad I didn't take that