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Why would she chance gaining a tiny advantage (whatever it might be there, no idea...bump between her ball and the hole?) in a spot where she is almost certainly going to be on tv? I don't know how smart she is but she's probably not that dumb.
It's hard to speculate on the reasons without more information. If it's something she makes a habit of doing, maybe she didn't think about the potential consequences of extra scrutiny.
I find it way harder to believe that she'd miss by that much on replacing the ball than that she wouldn't have fully considered and accurately assessed the probability and consequences of being caught.
Whether it was a mistake or not, the penalty belongs on the scorecard. Letting it go would set a terrible precedent. There's already massive incentive to cheat, especially in the majors.