This is something I’m personally looking into. So, I wanted to reverse engineer things a bit and layout my thinking (hoping if there’s a misstep someone will point it out).

And this is obviously a high risk investment (therefore high reward). Similar to buying a racehorse, or funding a F1 team, backing a boxer, poker player, what have you.

To get to the reverse engineering. How I’m currently viewing it is similar to investing in other forms of entertainment like movies or music. The only reason anyone is paying A list directors and movie stars 20 million a movie is because the producers are looking to bank 200 million themselves.

I think it’s probably safe to say that’s the standard ratio in entertainment where talent needs to generate 10 x the revenue they hope to earn. Why the 200/20 million figures. Pretty sure it’s the same in the music industry as mentioned. 1 million in the pocket of a musician is generating 10 million for the producer. (https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3482983)

Which gets highly interesting in my opinion when these figures are turned towards golf. Because the list of billionaire athletes is extremely top heavy with golfers. 4 of the top 6 are golfers – Tiger Woods, Arnold Palmer, Jack Nicklaus, Phil Mickelson.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/kurtbad.../#294a795e4b64

Anyways, in order for these athletes to pocket 1 billion themselves (using the 10% rule) what these golfers are doing is generating 10 billion in revenue for investors.

So, if I’m looking to fund a golfer. That’s the question I think I should be asking. Can this person generate 10 billion dollars in revenue?

And the only way to do that is with a worldwide product. With low barrier to entry. Which in effect means the buying public needs to be able to connect with an artist’s song within a few seconds.

Or in the case of athletes the marketing draw needs to be a visual display of athleticism that transcends language. A quick glance should tell the consumer everything they need to know. Going back to movies, this is why big budget action movies are preferred for worldwide distribution – much less dialogue for things to be lost in translation.

With all that said, a very promising investment opportunity has arisen with the following individual. A quick eyeball test on my part says, “Yes, this is someone who can generate 10 billion dollars for investors with visual symbolism that’s international.” (Image: https://i.imgur.com/hzh9WGM.jpg)

Of course it’s not that easy. As mentioned, that’s the quick eyeball test. To really determine if this opportunity is worth 10 billion, there needs to be a “crossover element” or “ingredient x”.

For Tiger Woods that crossover element would be his ethnicity. Someone like Jack Nicklaus brought multi-sport athletes to golf with his background in basketball. Arnold Palmer crossed over with “Arnie’s Army” including the middle/lower classes in the exclusive game of golf.

Outside of golfers there’s many more examples of athletes with crossover potential. Steve Largent went into politics. Michael Phelps “ingredient x” in my opinion was not just that he won, but destroyed records in the process. (Which I also see in the above photo – a golfer who cannot only win, but demolish records while doing so). Dr. Gil Morgan was a golfer and doctor.

Long story short. My wallet’s open and ready to invest in this guy. A rising tide elevates all boats, so I have no problem sharing this opportunity here.

What am I missing though? Why shouldn’t I take a flyer on this? (Opportunities come and go, but I think this one is special in that there’s a very real possibility we could be talking about 10 billion dollars.)

Kind of a weird post... I mean, you write all of that up so well, and then the image you include is of a balding dude in plaid shorts at a muni?

Also, I'm too lazy to google, but i've never heard anything of this 'Jack Nicklaus brought multi-sport athletes to golf with his background in basketball. ' I know Nicklaus won the 200 meter dash and was a good football player, but I've never heard of him having big achievements in basketball.. Maybe you meant someone else?

this post is just weird - you never actually gave any details about this golfer you are supposedly ready to invest money in.

and this part makes it seem like a scam.

Nicklaus was like the original Tiger Woods. Bobby Jones (founder of the Masters) talking about how much Nicklaus crushed the ball after watching the 1965 Masters:

"Nicklaus played a game with which I am not familiar."

Sounds similar to attempts at "Tiger-Proofing" the Masters when they redesigned the course in 2001. Tiger kind of legitimized golfers as "real athletes" with how he hammered the ball similar to Nicklaus.

http://www.espn.com/golf/masters11/c...329-RTTMasters

And since we're going back through history any athlete should really familiarize themselves with Arnold Palmer (and probably pay tribute). Because Palmer was the first athlete of any sport to put his face on every product that crossed his path. Basically paving the way for all the endorsement deals available today. Golf Channel did a great documentary that covered some of this called Arnie.

(Of course there could be elements of racism with attempts at "Tiger-Proofing" Augusta, especially with Fuzzy Zoeller's fried chicken comments, but this is obviously not the place for that discussion).

https://www.nytimes.com/1997/04/24/s...y-a-price.html

Lol. Hello, golfer's friend. Good luck trying to drum up "investors" so you and your buddy can travel around some of the mini tours on someone else's dime.

You think you can convince people that throwing money at your friend is going to make him play better? There's really no reason you can't just post any locals results. As the way you've presented it, it sounds like the intro to a ****ty multi-level pyramid scheme presentation.


If this is an elaborate troll to make fun of your friend that has aspirations to play professionally but you all know he's got no shot, then I can get behind this thread. Otherwise, it's a really poor effort to try to crowdfund some vacation money.

are you sure this isn't a nigerian golfer?

with one exception i'll note later, investing in a golfer is a gift to that person, not an investment. the only players that would have great investments didn't need our money.

i do remember reading a few years ago about being able to invest in an already successful athlete's future earnings (i.e. ricky fowler might be expected to earn another $120 MM in his career. so you buy 5% for $4.5MM (discount for numerous reasons such as discount rate and moral hazard)...

the only way a true financial investment works for a new player is the investor taking x% of lifetime touring pro income (i.e. i'll fund you for $100k per season, but you give me 3% of your future earnings - on-course and off). note that club pro and "retired from golf pro" earnings wouldn't be included.

my local neighbourhood pro (ex-NCAA player of the year, the top level) is mostly in China these days. wonder how easy sponsorship is.

as a note, he won one of the NCAA Player of the Year awards, there were others.

jack nicklaus was an outstanding high school basketball player.

that write-up is a complete mess..................... i'm sure TW is quite happy keeping $1 of every $10 he generates for his manager/producer...

anyway, it's worse than a troll, he's looking for money

Colleges crank out about 1000 golfers per year that could beat your guy + at a least one member from every Country Club in the world + 1000s of SW Korean women + 1000s of Muni course hustlers, + 10s of 1000s of High School boys & girls + the top 10,000 in World Rankings. With that said, best of luck with your investment - sounds like a great idea.

That sounds like a manager if they're taking 5%. And if talent is giving away percentages the "ceiling" on that talent also has to be taken into account. Admittedly, I'm going off a lot of intuition here, but my "spidey sense" is saying there's a Robert Redford Natural vibe coming from this dude.

Something "thunderous" is going on at impact, just explosive power. (Boxing they joke about dynamite fists, pretty sure Johnny Miller's made comments about "heavy hits" as well).

Not everyone's got that "it' or "x-factor", so if negotiating I think it's fair to say the "ceiling" on this cat is up there. Maybe not "gazillions" like, Forrest Gump but it could be a lot. So, there's a lot of factors to consider. One of those situations where you only get one chance to get a contract right (see Rory having to settle 30 million to bad management)

Another factor is this guy appears to be doing everything single-handedly at the moment with a GoFundMe. Does he even need a manager? Bill Murray being a famous example who dropped representation around age 40 I think with just an 800 number for people to leave messages about job offers.

Maybe investor/s would be the better fit than manager as it seems he's doing fine except for money? Seems he got screwed out of whatever last job he had because that's a lot of talent to be floating around up for grabs. Maybe he just needs a good lawyer to negotiate a "severance package" from his old employer? Yeah, lots of questions.

How old is he?
College experience?
Amatuer tournament results?

spidey, that's not a manager.. a manager provides a service, an investor just provides cash (might become friends but that's different)

if i look at player i know who has decent chance of making pga tour. top 10 ranked player and #1 at a big golf university. and he's on web.com so not that far away.

so i'd say there's a reasonable chance that he makes $30 to $40MM in his career.

if i give him $100K per year for 5% of his future income, then after 5 or 6 years , i have 30% of him.

well, if he makes it big, he makes a ton a money and i make a good return.

if he doesn't make it, he and his parents don't have huge debts. my partial ownership only relates to his tour and off-course (tour pro) earnings.

plus while he was trying to make it, he had zero concerns. he could stay at good restaurants, hotels, really concentrate on his game and work at something he likes in the off-season (maybe as intern, but something with great future potential)....

my sense is that these players have pretty good money sources for the first couple of years out of university. then it all dries up at the same time. country club financiers i would think are happy to do it once where there's huge momentum out of school... but then it's lonely - figuratively - later on.

i've caddied for almost 10 players now and of course there were other guys in the group. almost all top 200 type college players........ i won't go into details but what they get from the club/clothing/etc. companies is not that great and has got much worse in recent years. like getting a new pair of shoes was a big deal (although they do get clubs every few years)

btw, what are you getting from investing in this player?.. my deal ($100K for 4%-5% of lifetime earnings) doesn't exist (i don't think so)

you'd be more like doing $30K for 5% to 10% of his "net income" next 5 years... honestly, tiger woods and phil mickelson (and rory mcilroy and jordan speith) didn't want or need any investors money when turning pro (they needed it at age 14. but any contract you enter into with a 14 year old or his parents - regarding the 14 year old - is unenforceable (lawyers, correct me if i'm wrong....... see Genie Bouchard tax case)

sorry, when i made the nigeria comment, i thought you were soliciting funds.

This guy seems to be a bit of a special case for several reasons. The first being his age of course. There’s a pretty big difference between investing in a 20 year old and a 40 year old. It’s like the expectations you’d have with a CEO vs someone starting in the mail room.

So, he’s probably not going to have the adjustment period a lot of young guys go through with homesickness and all that. Another thing with older folks is he might have a half dozen other things he’s involved with. (This gentlemen has mentioned any contracts will need a clause for a “sabbatical” from golf if the opportunity to run for public office should present itself. He may also need a “Babe Ruth” clause for smoking and drinking when not on camera.)

Another thing because he’s older is the time frame you were suggesting of 5 years. A 20-year old may have that long to “make it work”, but this guy probably only has 3 years. He’s already a “fully-formed artist”, so the 5-10 album deals new artists sign with record labels would be too-much for someone not needing several years of development. It either lands big or not at all type deals.

Lawyers also renegotiate contracts if it just explodes after year 1. So, for those reasons I’d be hesitant at looking any farther than a year down the line. Investors want commitment so terms for 1 year would probably be awful and not much better than swimming with the loan sharks and paying vig.

Back to your original question, I guess it’s relative as Einstein says. As the only investor I can pretty much dictate the terms. If forced to compete with others, my take will be reduced. Until there’s an offer on the table though, I’m the only game in town.

(P.S. – Any local knowledge you can share if you’ve caddied Pebble would be awesome. A lot of big names seemed to be avoiding it a few years back because the poa annua was growing in bumpy on the greens neutralizing any putting advantage of good players: https://www.golf.com/tour-and-news/t...serving-excuse)

pebble beach has very small greens. smaller than i think almost anywhere else on tour .. i've watched there a bunch of times but not much insight.. 8 through 10 (along the ocean) seem like key holes....

for your investment, no matter how good your golfer is, it will take alot of time for him to make huge $$$$$.

as i said, investing in a golfer for a few years is pure "friends and family" negative $EV, not a serious financial investment

"Please invest in this guy. I don't want to be the only one making a fortune."

Am I reading your posts correctly? I'm sorry if I'm dense. All I see is some rando on the internet saying this 40 year old kid has got what it takes, with zero information about results or stats provided.

Id blindly bet on a D1 college golfer (that goes to a decent golf school and is in their starting line up) pretty much blind over some 40 year old Joe Schmo

Ok, we got the age lol40
How about the other two questions???

Since this is a poker site, I think most are familiar with "parlay" wagers. Lots of guys here play satellites into bigger tournaments they normally couldn't afford. $10 into a big Sunday event, $100 into the WSOP - where the payoff could be millions.

So, I'd disagree it must take time. Fast money can be made, it just depends on risk tolerance and willingness to "let it ride" (the stomach of steel all gamblers talk about). Who can forget Daly at Crooked Stick in ’91:

https://www.cbssports.com/golf/news/...uns-the-world/

Factor in the ability to go viral nowadays, with the media creating "sensations", "phenomenons", and "darlings" because it's good for business makes it even more doable.

I think a lot of times people who get their 15 minutes and can’t seem to cash in financially is because there wasn’t a whole lot of “depth” to why they’re in the spotlight to begin with. Same reason psychics complain about giving readings to the general public – 98% of people aren’t doing anything worth “reading” – just boring (often miserable) lives their leading.

Funny you brought up the small greens at Pebble, because I’ve been trying to understand the “proximity to the hole” stat since it came out. Nicklaus won at Pebble 5 times (he won everywhere duh), but I was under the impression his strategy down the stretch was give the other guy enough rope to hang himself with – play to the fat of the green, two putts and let the other guy choke himself out. Not a whole lot of “fat” on Pebble’s greens though.

http://www.golfwrx.com/313836/you-sh...and-heres-why/

https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/9...01/?highlight=

Oh, OK...

Appreciate the discussion, but as the saying goes, "the first 48 hours are the most critical for any investigation". And it appears nothing is going to come of this since the GoFundMe is already half over at 13 days now.

(One of the reasons businesses strive to respond within 24-48 hours to customer concerns - not much useful information gained by waiting longer. Corporations also like to appear "agile" in the face of emerging market conditions.)

Anyways, if the gentlemen who was looking to invest 100k for 3 years is still interested, I was thinking we could pool our resources and get some kind of group discount. I'll attempt to contact you in private or however you prefer.

Time = Money, btw to the above poster. Investing time is the same as investing money.

WTF

"pool our resources"
LOL, what a loser...

obv this is all nonsense, but getting back on the investing in a golfer.

Kenny Perry still pays out his original investors.

A player from my hometown was Big 12 athlete of the year and still plays web.com. He missed playoffs this year for the first time in a few years. He got second in a playoff last year in an event or would have gotten his tour card. He didn't play well this year.

He was getting investors about 12 years ago and I was interested in fronting a bigger amount for a lifetime % deal but all he was doing was invest $500 and you can get a max 10% return I believe. Which he did well at the start winning a Hooters event for 35k, won a challenge tour event and did well on TarHeel Tour. So everyone got the max return, which they probably just gave back.