I'd bet a million dollars steven levitt has read outliers. Once you get tenure at Chicago U, you can explain to him what diminishing returns are.

If you look at the last 20 scores he's posted and calculate his handicap its down to 8.7 so he's managed to break single digits. I guess that doesn't say much, since just about anyone with enough work can probably do that.

Now we get to see just how much talent Dan has. Single digits is where pretty much everyone gets stuck.

lol @ this

Welcome to my world!

BO

One thing that hasn't been discussed is Dan's likelihood to succeed at this versus the average person.

Prior to the beginning of the experiment, I would say he is more likely than the average person to progress further than the average person given that he has been successful enough up to this point in his life to provide for himself to fund the experiment on his own.. (Not working etc..) Another pro to his side is that he did things intelligently by hiring a professional instructor, etc.. And, of course a big negative is that he didn't have an athletic background, meaning he likely doesn't have much natural athletic talent, or he would have at some point found a sport he excelled at and stuck with it.

Then, if I knew he would have the determination to endure 5 months on a putting green, I would weigh the odds WAY in his favor versus the average person to progress further... At the same time, if I knew his coach was going to restrain him to the putting green for 5 months, I don't know what I'd think!!

Im assuming they have the best possible coaching and unlimited time on their hands... you dont think so?

Well you said "just about anyone with enough time". No, I don't think just about anyone with enough time can become a single.

If we're only talking about 30 year old in shape men who have 10,000 hours to commit, a great full-time coach, and a propensity for proving something to the world via his website and other media, then maybe.

In other words, if there were like 20 guys similar in age, shape, and ability to Dan, who were off doing the same exact plan then yeah he might be right in the middle of skill level of those 20 guys. So in that sense his results wouldn't be telling us too much about his inherent athletic ability to control a clubhead.

But if you took a random swatch of 100 (I'll throw in the qualifier: adults) people from the population who have never really gotten into golf (men and women of various ages and abilities), and they all attempted this same plan, (websites, publicity and all..) Dan's 8.7 handicap would probably be at the very top right now, and probably like third out of 100 at worst.

I think those in the "only a select few can reach singles with 10k hours of time" camp are overrating how difficult it is to become a single. I would have bet that Dan would be further along than he is now.

+1

I mean I think over the next 6 months we will find out a lot more about Dan's potential. If he drops to a 3 by then he could still go long way, but if he's just a 7 still then we know he's run into a serious barrier. This is usually where people get stuck..

Pretty much how I feel.

And galaxies away from being pro.

I'm interested in how someone who's always played golf as their recreational sport, but excelled in other sports, would be able to do this? Let's say a 10-15 handicap, but clearly with athletic ability and a track record of success...would that affect this outcome if they had the same constraints? Picture a college QB who just didn't have the gusto to make it to the NFL.

Off the top of my head QB's and pitchers succeed very well at golf but I believe thats more to do with their hand eye coordination than their athleticism or all baseball and football players would be good golfers and this doesn't seem to be the case at all. Rarely do you see a non pitcher, QB or hockey player at the top of the celebrity golf tournies.

at one time Michael Jordan had intentions of being a top notch golfer.
He's worse at golf then he was at baseball.

I would think that soccer players could pick up golf quicker than most athletes.
I know that hockey players pick up the game quicker than others.

For me there is a barrier just above scratch and that's still miles away from pro. If I really play a lot I go from a 7-8 down to a 2-3, but never seem to get much lower than that. Maybe if I all I was doing was playing golf like this guy I could get it below scratch, but I doubt I'd even approach pro level and I've been playing since I was a kid. This seems very unlikely for him. It's an interesting story though and I think he could probably get down around scratch by the end, but I think he's too old to make it to any serious professional level.

thx for the link OP just seen this will be a good viewing.

All I have to say is good luck to him...you never get any where without trying!!!

I watched a show one time that was discussing this and they attributed a pitcher and QB's golf success largely to a couple things which they have to be intrinsically good at:

1) Not letting a bad shot bother them. QBs cannot dwell on a bad pass or an interception and are constantly thinking of the next pass. Pitchers cannot be rattled by giving up a 420 foot home run to go down by 4 in the third inning. They need to focus on the next batter/pitch and grind out putting up goose eggs on the scoreboard to try to win or to at least not wear out their bullpen.

2) Mental preparation of executing shots/passes/pitches. They said the mental process is very similar in that you envision what you are about to do and then, at your pace, execute it. QBs get to chose when to start the play but they also then have guys trying to tackle them unlike pitchers and golfers. But still it's about preparing for the next event and then starting the execution and following it through fully committed.

Hockey players it's more about the swing strength/mechanics they have developed by hitting something down at ground level. They also have elite lower body control/balance.

I heard baseball hitters do not translate too well. As a former pitcher, I can say though that the mental aspect has not translated to my golf game. I let shots bother me and beat myself up like crazy out there but this never happeneds when I pitch. I think it has more to do with being 1 on 1 against the next hitter and just wanting to own him. In golf, there is nobody to "own" but yourself...

Also baseball hitters swing a bat with a strong arm chicken wing and bent weak arm, so as to be able to adjust to pitches that can be anywhere. Keeping my left arm straight on backswing took a lot of practice for me as it felt counter-intuitive, and tucking my right elbow chicken wing has been even harder as I'm so used to keeping my back elbow "up".

baseball hitters being bad at golf is BS old timer hearsay.

nicklaus did fine with a flying elbow. soft left arm works just fine too. What other body part do you consciously keep rigid while swinging? why would you want to be tense on the backswing? just swing

I have to disagree with this. But I am an old timer so you probably knew I would.

I mean I don't think it's the curse of being a lifetime hack or anything, it's just been my experience that most (not all) struggle more than it seems they should.

I've played with quite a few former mlb/college baseball guys and they all smoke it. I think it's a case of misaligned expectations.

You'll see a great hitter struggle with golf but they are still a 10-handicapper even though they only play 1x a month. Compared to where the general population would be with the same experience, they are miles better at golf. Having effortless 110mph+ swingspeed helps a ton.

That was just a movie.

I've heard legends of Jim Rice hitting a golf ball.

Didn't mean baseball hitters are "bad" at golf, but I think there is a belief that pitchers do better than pure hitters.

Smoking a ball helps a little bit. I'm a 29 HC and last year in my first year playing I logged 4 300+ yard drives with an old driver and hitting used ProV1s. (max. 317 - Driver/7 pin high on 477 yard flat (though rock hard fairway and 100 degree temperature day hole) within first ~20 rounds. I'm still terrible at golf lol.

Hitters are certainly capable of mashing a ball but there is a lot more to golf than that.

Who are some of the best former MLBers? Maddux and Smoltz are pretty good I think. Glavine, too. I'll see if Google has anything on it.

pitchers (at least starters) probably have a lot more time to work on their golf game. not saying that they don't have to put in a ton of work but still pitching every 5/6 days isn't the same as preparing for a different pitcher every day.