well you already have one pro disagreeing with you, which is why I would prefer a much more detailed answer to why you think the average joe can't play to a 2 handicap

This is obviously absurd. In almost every other sport size plays a much much larger role in your success. This is the reason I quit baseball sophmore year of highschool, I hadn't really grown yet and everyone on my team had. Some of my team mates and people I play against are current major league ball players and I had no chance against them with our size difference. I was incredible on defense, and an ok hitter but that holds no weight in baseball to an ok defender and someone who has a lot of power at the plate.


Golf is like almost no other sport. It's physical skills do not compare to other sports(yes to be super physically fit nowadays is just about a requirement, but even 20 years ago tour players for the most part were not considered fit and in shape)

If you've ever read Malcolm Gladwell's "Outliers"(if you haven't I would recommend it, good read) then you will have read about his study on birthday's and sports. An example is the Canadian Junior hockey team. The cutoff date for hockey sign ups in Canada is Dec 31. So if you are born on Jan 1st you will be the oldest in your age group. For the last however many years the team has been populated almost exclusively by people born in the first 3 months of the year. Why is that you think? Because when you are 10-12 years old is when in most sports the "top" players get recruited to play on select and travel teams. Well a 6-11 month difference at that age can be huge, and since on average who ever is born first grows first those are the kids selected for the travel and select teams. Those are then the kids that receive a lot more directed learning about hockey and who play hockey all the time. It's no wonder they are the ones that make the Canadian National Junior hockey team. At a young age they maybe possessed similar skills to everyone else but due to their age/size they were selected to become the elite hockey players of their nation.

The same thing goes for my baseball experience. Baseball in America generally has a cutoff date sometime in July. And around 10-12 years old again is when they start looking for kids to give special attention to who will play on select/travel teams. Here are the birthdays of some of the people I played with/against.

Justin Upton August 25
BJ Upton August 21
David Wright December 20
Ryan Zimmerman September 28
Mark Reynolds August 3

Now golf isn't like any other sport in America in this regard. There aren't tons of kids all over the country playing in golf leagues, being recruited when they are 10-12 years old to travel the country and play golf against the best competition they can find. It's all up to the kid and his/her parents to really pursue golf. And since golf is a fairly expensive sport you see a lot of kids rise out of families that have a little more money, because they were able to seek out the proper instruction, but it's really no wonder that the kids who grew up playing golf and receiving golf instruction are the ones that excel at the game.

The world's best players weren't just born with the ability to play amazing golf. They worked the hardest. Tiger would probably slap you if you told him he was just born to be a great golfer, because he probably put in more time than just about anyone working on his game. The bottom line is that hard work pays off, and unless you have some sort of limitation holding you back(like a mental or physical problem) you can achieve just about anything.

I disagree with the bolded, actually. Perhaps you're forgetting about guys like these...

"Spud" Webb. 5'7", 133lbs - played 13 years in the NBA



"Mugsy" Bogues, 5'3", 136lbs. 14 years in the NBA



Theo Fleury, 5'6" and 170lbs. NHL all star.




How about some of the fatties in baseball...

David Wells. Pitched a perfect game if memory serves.



Cecil Fielder



Or what about this guy...



And let's not forget about my personal favorite:




And there are numerous other examples from all other sports. None of them are the 'ideal' of what we think people in their respective sports should look like, but they made it anyways, and in fact some of them were among the very best in the game. So what does that tell us? I bet if you looked at what all of these guys have in common you'd find a tremendous amount of dedication and practice and some very, very good coaching. Talent MAY play a part, but I bet it's not nearly as much of a part as we've been lead to believe all these years.

Well, it was obviously incorrect since a pro disagrees!

And that's incredibly cool, no question. But are you going to tell me that every blind person has the ability to break 80? An incredibly small percentage of the blind population has the God-given ability to do so. Even smaller percentage will ever make it happen.

God blesses everybody with various near-unique talents. And yes, I think that 9x% of the population will never reach this level regardless of effort.

What percentage of the population do you think would be a scratch golfer or better with unlimited resources?

BO

You really think Babe Ruth was dedicated to baseball? He's a perfect example of someone who was born to play ball regardless of effort.

BO

Sorry but no. It is well-known that Ruth was more of a boozehound or whatever later in life, but that was long after he was already a star with a fairly well-honed craft. Nothing could be farther from the truth when he was younger though. It's believed that Ruth started playing for his boarding school (actually it was more of a reform school, run by the Catholic church) team when he was seven or eight years old and was then scouted and signed by a pro team when he was nineteen (as a pitcher, interestingly enough). That's twelve years of playing between when he started and when he was signed, and all of it under what had to be a fairly stern regimen (and pretty good coaching as it turned out) at the boarding school. It seems pretty clear that he worked his butt off to get where he was, just like all the rest.

I wonder how many hours Spud Webb put in to be able to do this?

Lol, exactly.

Too many people are acting like hand/eye coordination isn't that innate, or is some kind of different innate than being able to run really fast (high VO2max), being able to sprint fast/jump high (high density of fast twitch muscle fibers) because its partially in the brain. All these things can be improved a good deal but genetics is hugely determinant in the plateau you can reach.

There's a huge selection bias going on here too. You remember the unusual stories of people who do very well with hard work - but not the people who might put in hard work for a few weeks then quit cause they're not improving, or improving too slow to make it enjoyable.

By now should be clear guy has zero chance. If he did he'd probably be in single digits by now.

You think he could do it the day he first picked up a basketball?

Peeda, Not true because he's only worked on his putter. Has he even played a round of golf yet?

Obviously. It's what any rational person would think.

The original title of that movie was going to be White Men Can't Jump because they Don't Work Hard Enough at it

http://www.tampabay.com/features/can...actice/1159357

I think it's detrimental to the thread to start picking out the three or five or whatever people out of an entire history of professional sports and saying "See?? They worked hard! Anyone can do this" as though they are the only ones that have put in the proper amount of time and that anyone who couldn't rise to their level just didn't try hard enough. L O ****ing L. Seriously.


But to really keep the discussion on track, I propose the following scenario:

Imagine a world where everyone goes about their business until they're twenty. At that point, society demands that everyone spend their twenties devoted to the game of golf...after all, it's our planet's heritage and every proud man and woman is required to dedicate their lives to learning how to get the ball in the hole. Schools around the world are filled with people learning this game, from top notch instructors, and they devote every hour they realistically can to learning and playing this game. Once they hit 30, their ability to play the game determines how they are placed in the work force. Those that can't play as well as others are destined to be trash men, plumbers, etc. The very best get the cushy well paying jobs.




What percentage of people in this hypothetical world would make it to scratch golf by the time they're 30? I'd imagine a lot more than just 10%. Of course, statistically, I'm sure there would still be a bell shaped curve of distribution, but I guarantee that the peak of that curve is a lot closer to scratch golf than you'd think.

Now, I mostly agree with your sentiment about how such a small percentage of people in todays society would have the mental fortitude to get down to scratch, and that's where we are in agreement. But I must disagree about there being a natural "talent" that people are born with that make or break them when it comes to their potential.

I think it's more of a product of mental/psychological upbringing and what people's trained. learned belief systems end up being. Tiger was told since the day he was born that he was going to be the greatest ever. Being taught how to win at such a young age, and growing up in competitive environments brings the expectation to succeed to a much higher level than some poor average joe that gets given a set of old blades from a garage sale and gets shoved out the door by mommy "Go play golf. Be home by dinner".

These unlimited resources that we keep discussing in this thread, does it involve going back in time and unlearning what you already know about success? The average person nowadays does not know what it takes to succeed at anything.

Interesting. Thanks for posting this.

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/93...-golf-1023645/

I was actually going to lock this thread without realizing the other one existed, but looks like merge incoming.

The point of the thread is about this specific guys situation and his chances of getting below a 2 handicap or to scratch or thereabouts which resulted in the generalizations.

There aren't unlimited resources but I think we can assume some reasonable plans and estimates were made and it was determined the resources available were sufficient to support the 6 year, 10,000 hour plan.

I definitely don't think this guy can become the Spud Webb of golf but Spud Webb is the equivalent of Corey Pavin not of a scratch golfer.

How about a different hypothetical. Take ten boys aged ten, and send them to a golf boot camp. While there they spend hours each day studying all of the fundamentals of golf. They play two or more rounds a day, and spend hours on the range. When it's dark or raining they watch videos of great players and study their technique. They are fed the best foods and have rigorous exercise routines designed to develop their golfing muscles, as well as psychological help to perfect their mindsets. Then, if they do not achieve certain measurable levels at certain time periods, they are beaten or otherwise disciplined.

Now given those conditions, how many of those kids do you think would be scratch players or better by the time they were 16 or 17? BO says none, or maybe at most one. Anyone think he's right? I happen to think it's more likely that ALL of them would, and that most would probably be stars at the college level and probably have a better than even money shot at the PGA tour in their 20's.

And, for what it's worth, I think we'll probably have a chance to bet on that proposition, 'cause I'd wager a buck or two that one or more schools just like that open in China before the year 2020. Any takers on that one?

Nice post Reid. I think maybe Bo is just using some poor word choice. If he said "99% of the population do not have the time, energy, and determination to work at something hard enough to achieve it" everyone would agree. But he is ignoring effort way too much and basically saying that the general population has a ceiling on their golf ability that no amount of work can overcome. I think many of us disagree with this.

I can't think of one super successful person I know personally, that didn't work extremely hard at their craft. It's just not sexy to spend much time discussing that though, so it gets buried in the story. I read a lot of business books about startups, and often you get the idea that "they had an idea", <some time passes>, "they are a multi million dollar company". Well in that <time passing> part of the story, they are working their asses off! Until you go through the experience, skip an anniversary dinner because a few more lines of code need to be fixed, wake up in your office chair with the laptop still on in front of you, etc. you don't know about the work that got put in. But nobody wants to hear about that stuff 10 years down the road, its just the details.

BO, I know you played at a high level, are you saying its fair to say that you didn't work that hard and you were just lucky to have talent? I feel your argument mostly diminishes your own accomplishments, as I'm sure you practiced your ass off too!

As a couple of recent posts have alluded to so much of this depends on age.

A 10 year old with unlimited resources has such a better chance of becoming scratch than a 40 year old.

That's why I mentioned waiting until everyone was 20

If I understood Gladwell correctly, he didnt say that anyone who spent 10,000 hours can be proficient at a craft. He stated that given certain natural abilities, one would have to put in that much dedicated practice to be at the top.

Reid, what's hypothetical about being awesome at golf and getting a cushy job? Look at ship!!

I don't know if you remember, last year I made a post about trying to get to scratch.. I wouldn't say I got to scratch, but I did have some under par rounds, and stretches where 75 was a bad score, so... I must say, the whole process was incredibly enjoyable and fulfilling, and as you mention, made me understand what it took to be successful at something. **Edit , I didn't get to practice as much as I wanted as my course is 45km away, and the heat here is a bit unbearable after a while. So I'd say I practiced every other day, for maybe 2hrs avg, and probably 3 rounds a week.**

back to the cushy job comment..It's funny, I remembered saying that I thought being good at golf would be a good venue for meeting people. Well, during one round, I was introduced to a local guy. I had 5 birdies that day and shot 73. I was given a job offer from him a couple of weeks later! Coincidence??

Without taking this too deep.. I think jewish people are incredibly successful in todays society, and I also think they are the biggest subscribers to busting your ass to getting awesome at something.

I definitely believe all of these kids will become scratch players some time before 17.

Given such a small percentage of world's population start golf early enough to be a pro, yes I agree that most of these kids will be stars at the college level and good chance at going pro. Now if you say baseball/basketball then no they dont have a good chance at making it to the pros but still more likely than average college players.

Hey dinopoker, I got completely smashed last night and drove 20 miles home. Driving drunk must be safe!!