Quote:
Originally Posted by dagolfdoc
Surely not - not even you could love Tiger that much.
Quote:
Originally Posted by shemp
I'd hate to be the one covering the other side of the action on that bet.
I will address this first I guess. Yes, undeniably I am a huge Tiger fan and have been every since I was young and my grandfather introduced me to golf. I also love numbers and statistics. That is the reason why Trackman is unbelievably interesting to me. The same reason why I was able to pour over equity calculations in relation to poker hands enabling me to succeed fairly well during the online poker days and will hopefully lead me to success in the trading world.
I always want to know "why"? My wife gets pissed at me all of the time because I don't "trust her"(that's what she calls it when I don't immediately believe everything she says
). I ask a lot of questions and hardly ever take anything someone says as "it". I need to understand "why" what they say is right, and if I don't understand it myself then I will ask them to prove it to me, or I will look it up and figure it out myself.
Unfortunately it appears the double whammy of being a Tiger and numbers fan has caused me to become hated in the golf forum. Maybe if someone would remind everyone that I encouraged dagolfdoc(who is obviously a HUGE ASSET to any golfer) to sign up and participate here they will take it easier on me. I knew he would like it and I knew the posters on this forum would love it. Oh well, but I really enjoy these discussions. I'm trying to take opinions out of the conversation. Sure, I have opinions and I realize that anything I say about Tiger will be taken with a grain of salt on this board, that is why I always try to provide the statistics that lead me to my opinion.
Quote:
Originally Posted by dagolfdoc
The funny thing with everyone saying Tiger is "close" is the argument "IF" - if he putted better, if he doesn't do this, give him so & so's putting stats - that's not the point. IF he was already doing that, I'd say he's very close. Tiger was dominant for a long time, he is not now, he may be again. Right now, though, there are players who are playing better, but no one wants to look at those guys and say they are close. IF Kyle Stanley doesn't f-up 18, and 3 whack it after he hit it in the water, he wins. IF I was 6'10, I might have played college basketball.
When you are wondering if someone is "close" obviously some speculation is necessary. If it was a yes or no question as to whether he was back to form, it would be no. I don't particularly care for "if" statements either, but in reference to the "close" argument they are essential. My "close" argument hinges with Tiger returning, at least to some degree, to the days of his great putting. We've seen it here and there over his last tournaments, but unfortunately the "bad" has outweighed the "good".
I also think people put too much stock in the fact that Tiger missed that 5 footer on the last hole in the match play. He hit a great putt on 17 and made a putt slightly shorter(maybe?) than the one on 18 on the 16th hole that was quite important. Nobody is giving him credit for the 10 footer he made on Wednesday to seal his match, or the putts he holed on 17 and 18 at the Chevron. Sunday at Abu Dabi wasn't a putting issue, Sunday at Pebble was. That's how it goes sometimes.
If you were 6'10" yea
maybe you do would have played college bball, but that's not a gaurantee. If Tiger Woods putted half-way decently in any of his previous events he
would have more wins. That is a fact.
Quote:
Originally Posted by dagolfdoc
So, you're saying Tiger has had a better 12 months than Phil, Bradley, Stanley, Sneds, and Haas?
No. All I did was look at their last 4 stroke play appearances, and I only did it because Tiger has a better average finish than 5 guys who are "playing better" than him at the moment. For the record, I obviously don't think Tiger had a better 12 months. I'll bet that he has a better next 12 months tho
Quote:
Originally Posted by dagolfdoc
They all have WINS - some multiple, some majors. Tiger's lone win comes in the silly-season. I can't agree that "everyone would lead you to believe" Tiger is playing horrible - I just don't think he's dominant, which is more what I see on this thread - is that he is so close - maybe. But, what about the others who are close?
Maybe this is the poker player in me talking, but yea wins are great and major wins are even greater, but the difference between the winner and 2nd place finisher in a particular week is negligible. Go back to the 3 way playoff with Haas, Bradley, and Phil. Because Haas drained a 40 footer on the 2nd playoff hole, all of a sudden he played better than Phil and Keegan that week. No, all 3 of them played great, Haas won the variance battle.
I don't like to use 1 or 2 tournaments to decide if someone is playing well. Anyone who's good enough to play on Tour can have 1 or 2 good weeks in a row. Start expanding that timeline though and you can weed out the noise and get down to business to see how someone is playing. And while 4 isn't much better, it is a little bit better and exposes some weaknesses aka missed cuts.
The general population is so results oriented it is ridiculous. Almost everyone who tee's it up in a PGA Tour tournament "could" win. Does that mean whoever wins next week at the Honda is playing better than Tiger Woods at the moment? No, but they played better THAT week. If Heath Slocum wins this weekend is he all of a sudden playing better than Tiger because he has a W? No, he played better for a week. If Tiger wins, is he now playing better than Phil, Keegan, Haas, Stanley, and Snedeker now that he matches them in recent wins and the consistency of his non-wins is much better? Yes(IMO) Does it really come down to if Tiger wins he's playing better, if he comes in 2nd he's not? That seems silly.
Just for fun.
Compare these 2 seasons from last year. Who does everyone think is "better"? Why is that?
Player A
-28 events
-10 missed cuts
-2 wins
-4 top 10s
-12 top 25s
-Scoring Average- 70.26
Player B
-26 events
-4 missed cuts
-1 win
-7 top 10s
-12 top 25s
-Scoring Average- 70.13
For me, I would rather have player B on a week to week basis. I'm sure it's close, and when you guys see who the players are that may sway your opinions. I put more weight on consistency, playing a lot of very solid golf, because in the long run the guy with the lower scoring average "should" produce better results. However variance is huge, and when you compress the average scores on tour from top to bottom like they are nowadays it makes it even harder, statistically to win. It's no wonder we have more and more first time winners and seasons where a lot of people win, where its not just a few guys dominating. The answer is in the stats.
As for "the others who are close?", not a single one of those guys is "close" to anything resembling Tiger Woods during one of his dominant stretches. This is them playing their A game, and Tiger Woods is playing "consistently better" with whatever grade you want to give his game now, and it's obviously not A.
Also, regards to silly season and the Grand Slam. If someone thinks that Tiger's win at Chevron is even remotely comparable to Keegan's win at the Grand Slam then just wow.
Last edited by NxtWrldChamp; 02-27-2012 at 08:02 PM.